Polymarket predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 87%.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, as of today, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in contracts predicting a September 2025 Fed rate cut has risen to 87%, a record high. In comparison, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 9%, the probability of no change is 4%, and the probability of a rate hike is virtually zero. Total trading volume for this prediction event has exceeded $76 million, with contracts for a 50 basis point rate cut generating the highest volume at over $16.94 million, followed by contracts for a 25 basis point rate cut at $12.04 million. Since early August, market confidence in a 25 basis point rate cut has significantly increased, potentially reflecting growing expectations of an economic slowdown and a shift toward easing Federal Reserve policy.