Polymarket predicts that the probability of the US government shutting down before October 1 has risen to 71%, with nearly $950,000 in bets.

Prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the probability of a US government shutdown before October 1st has risen to 71%, a 17% increase from the previous week. Cumulative trading volume in the market is close to $950,000. Related markets have priced the probability of a government shutdown throughout 2025 at 82%. Previous reports have indicated that a US government shutdown would create a data gap for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.