According to BlockBeats, there is a 70% likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown occurring on Wednesday, as indicated by data from the prediction platform Kalshi.
Earlier today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released an emergency plan for a potential government shutdown, stating that all operations would be suspended, and no economic data would be published during this period.
Currently, U.S. lawmakers appear inclined to force a federal government shutdown, which could hinder policymakers, business leaders, and investors from accessing crucial data needed to assess the U.S. economic situation. Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, noted that the Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29. Without the latest government data, justifying another interest rate cut would be challenging.
Some officials have expressed caution, emphasizing the need for more data. Neil Bradley, Chief Policy Officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, stated that while a government shutdown would not push the U.S. economy into a recession, it would incur costs and add to the uncertainty already faced by businesses and business leaders.