Analysis: BTC's fair price is around $97,000. The last three pullbacks haven't fallen below the bull-bear line.

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin's current fair price is approximately $97,000. This value, calculated based on the historical cumulative average of MVRV, represents the market's "reasonable valuation center" during a mean-reversion cycle. Over the past decade, this fair price curve (blue line) has served as a near-bull-bear market demarcation line: even during bull market pullbacks, BTC has never significantly fallen below this line. However, a return to this level often triggers strong buying. Murphy noted that BTC has been trading above its fair price for nearly two years during this cycle, approaching but not falling below the blue line three times: during the "good news" phase following the ETF approval, during the yen carry position liquidation event in August 2024, and during the tariff crisis in April 2025. If one believes the current bull market structure is still in place, a price-effective buy point could be when BTC approaches $97,000. If one believes the cycle has turned bearish, then one could wait for a deeper pullback. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.