Bank of America: Credit tightness may trigger passive selling, and the stock market faces bear market signals

Bank of America strategists say further pressure in credit markets could trigger a new round of broad stock market sell-offs, as long-term investors, including pension funds, would be forced to sell assets. Savita Subramanian of Bank of America Securities said, "If volatility in private credit markets persists, institutions like pension funds may be forced to sell index funds to avoid valuation corrections in private assets." She noted that passive investing "dominates the S&P 500," so a market decline would force further selling from index funds. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak+, also noted that bank ETFs could exacerbate the selling pressure. "Given the significant weakness in bank ETFs, only a small further decline would confirm a significant trend shift in bank stocks." Bank of America also noted that the S&P 500 appears "statistically expensive" across 20 different valuation metrics, suggesting that the three-year bull market faces increasing valuation risks and a rising probability of a market downturn.