Economist survey: Fed rate cut next week has become a consensus, but there are large differences in the path of rate cuts next year

A Reuters poll of economists predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week and again in December, but there remains significant disagreement among them about where rates will be by the end of next year. All but two of the 117 economists surveyed predict the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points on October 29, bringing them to a range of 3.75%-4.00%. Two others predict a 25 basis point cut in October and a 50 basis point cut in December. Support for another December rate cut fell to 71%. The poll was conducted from October 15 to 21. Economists offered seven different forecasts for the end-of-year interest rate, ranging from 2.25%-2.50% to 3.75%-4.00%. The increased uncertainty stems in part from market speculation about who will take over as Fed chair when Chairman Powell's term ends in May next year.