The US Supreme Court is about to hear Trump's tariff case. Polymarket predicts that Trump has a 59% chance of losing the case.

The U.S. Supreme Court is about to hold a crucial hearing on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping use of tariffs, citing a national emergency as a justification. Prediction market betting suggests a greater than 50% chance of the judge ruling against Trump. Two independent betting sites—one asking whether Trump will lose, the other whether he will win—both give him a roughly 60% chance of defeat. The odds on PredictIt rose to 66% on Tuesday, after fluctuating between 48% and 69% over the previous month. Polymarket's odds have remained largely stable since late September, with the latest data showing a 59% chance of Trump losing. (Jinshi)