Wintermute Highlights Shifts in Global Liquidity and Crypto Market Dynamics

According to BlockBeats, crypto market maker Wintermute has released an analysis indicating that the current macroeconomic environment remains positive, with interest rates decreasing, quantitative tightening ending, and stock markets nearing their peaks. However, the cryptocurrency sector continues to lag, as capital flows have retracted following the recent FOMC meeting. Global liquidity is expanding, yet capital is not being directed towards the crypto market. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have stalled, and tokenized asset trading (DAT) activities have dwindled, with only stablecoins showing growth. The overall market structure is healthy, with leverage cleared and positions clean. For a new upward trend to emerge, a return of capital to ETFs or DATs would be a critical signal. The issue at hand is not a lack of liquidity but rather its diversion to other areas. While global liquidity is indeed increasing, central banks are cutting interest rates amid strong economic conditions, a rare occurrence that typically signals an impending robust risk appetite cycle. However, this new liquidity influx has not flowed into the crypto market as it has in the past. ETF funds remain stagnant, and DAT activities have dried up, resulting in a noticeable decline in the share of liquidity directed towards cryptocurrencies. The "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable. The miner supply and halving logic that previously drove price cycles have diminished in influence within mature markets. Currently, liquidity is the true driver of price movements.