Wintermute: The four-year cycle logic has failed; the real driving force of the market lies in liquidity.

In its latest market report, Wintermute stated that despite continued global liquidity expansion, major central banks' interest rate cuts, and the end of quantitative tightening, while the stock market remains high, incremental funds have not flowed into the crypto market. Instead, they have flowed more into sectors such as stocks, AI, and prediction markets, with only stablecoin supply maintaining growth. The report points out that the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current market landscape, and the core driver of price movements is now macro liquidity. Wintermute believes that the current market structure remains robust, leverage risks have been largely cleared, and volatility is relatively controllable. However, the true recovery of the crypto market still depends on the resumption of inflows into ETFs and DAT (tokenized asset trading).