Bitcoin prices are nearing their fair value, with approximately 40% of the holdings already showing a paper loss.

Analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin has approached its fair value of approximately $98,000 after its recent decline. This figure is calculated based on the historical average of the MVRV metric, representing the central range of market valuation reversion. Currently, the BTC price is very close to the average cost of active holdings, indicating that the market bubble has been almost completely deflated. Murphy points out that if the market remains rational, value buying should emerge within this range; if it continues to fall, it may enter an irrational phase or a period of confidence collapse. Data shows that the Bitcoin Profitable Supply Percentage (PSIP) is 72%, already at the extreme limit of a bull market correction (70%–75%). Excluding Satoshi Nakamoto and lost BTC, the proportion of unrealized losses is close to 40%. Furthermore, the proportion of long-term holders with losses has increased significantly, indicating that the market may have entered a cyclical bottoming phase. Analysts believe that if this correction is not the limit of a bull market adjustment, it may mark the beginning of a new bear market cycle.