Goldman Sachs: Even if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal, the impact on the overall trade situation will be limited.

Goldman Sachs points out that during the oral arguments, several U.S. Supreme Court justices questioned Trump's exercise of power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, indicating that the Supreme Court is increasingly likely to rule the government's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs unconstitutional. The market now estimates the probability of the Supreme Court upholding the tariffs has decreased by about 10 percentage points. The final ruling is expected between December 2025 and January 2026. If the Supreme Court rejects the legality of the tariffs, the government may need several months to refund approximately $115 billion to $145 billion in tariffs already collected. However, the government is likely to seek other legal grounds to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning the overall trade impact will remain limited. Any tariff reductions are likely to apply only to smaller trading partners, with no significant changes expected for major economies such as the EU. However, tax refunds and temporary tariff gaps could trigger short-term market volatility. (Jinshi)