Bitcoin's Future Bear Market Expected to Be Milder

According to Foresight News, the next Bitcoin bear market is anticipated to be less severe than previous cycles. A price decline to the $55,000-$70,000 range would be a normal cyclical movement rather than an indication of systemic collapse. While the current market focus is on how high Bitcoin can rise in this bull market, preparing for future market changes is equally important. This analysis, based on historical cycles, on-chain valuation metrics, and Bitcoin fundamentals, aims to estimate the next bear market bottom using data and mathematical models. It is not a specific prediction but an analytical framework. The 'Bitcoin Cycle Model' is one of the most reliable tools for identifying market bottoms, integrating multiple on-chain indicators to construct a price valuation range. Historically, this model's 'cycle low' indicator has accurately marked macro bottoms: $160 in 2015, $3,200 in 2018, and $15,500 at the end of 2022. Currently, this indicator is at $43,000 and rising, providing a reference for estimating the next cycle bottom. The MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) shows that during deep bear markets, Bitcoin's price typically falls to 0.75 times the realized price, or 25% below the average holding cost. The trend of decreasing bear market retracements suggests that the next bear market's maximum pullback might be around 70%. Before estimating the bottom, it is essential to determine the bull market peak. Historical data indicates Bitcoin peaks usually occur around 2.5 times the realized price. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin might reach a high of $180,000 by the end of 2025. Following the 'peak one year before bottom' pattern, a 70% retracement from the peak in 2027 would place the bottom range at $55,000-$60,000, aligning with last year's consolidation platform. Bitcoin's production cost (the electricity cost of mining a single coin) is a crucial long-term value anchor, historically aligning closely with bear market bottoms. After each halving, the cost doubles, forming a rising price floor. Currently, the production cost is around $70,000, providing strong price support. In conclusion, while some claim 'this time is different,' data consistently reveals underlying patterns. Although institutional participation and financialization have altered market structures, they have not eliminated cyclical characteristics. All indications suggest the next bear market will be milder, reflecting a more mature market and deeper liquidity. A price decline to the $55,000-$70,000 range would be a normal cyclical movement rather than an indication of systemic collapse.