After Federal Reserve officials publicly disagreed on interest rate levels, market expectations for a December 10th rate cut were widely skeptical. However, following comments from New York Fed President Williams supporting a rate cut, market sentiment dramatically shifted, with investors and economists widely believing the Fed is highly likely to implement such a move in December. Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli stated that the deteriorating labor market provides sufficient justification for a December rate cut. Official data shows the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% in September, the highest in nearly four years. Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti bluntly stated that the job market remains "in a precarious state." Vanguard Senior Economist Josh Hirt revealed that his key assessment of a Fed rate cut was Williams' public comments last Friday. As a close ally of Fed Chairman Powell, Williams explicitly advocated for a rate cut and stated that he "still believes there is room for further rate adjustments in the near term." This statement directly ignited the financial markets, with expectations for a December rate cut surging from nearly 40% the previous day to over 70%. Josh Hirt points out that Williams' stance means that the three most influential Fed officials—Powell, Williams, and Fed Governor Waller—all support a new round of easing, forming a "very powerful and difficult-to-shake camp." Krishna Guha, Global Head of Policy and Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI, analyzes that the phrase "in the short term" most directly refers to the next meeting (the December meeting). He believes that signals from the Fed's "big three" are almost always approved by the Chairman. Despite the growing consensus on rate cuts, economists still expect some officials to vote against them at the meeting. Boston Fed President Collins and Dallas Fed President Logan both expressed hesitation about further rate cuts. Former Cleveland Fed President Mester analyzes that Powell may use the December 10th press conference to convey a key message: this rate cut is an "insurance cut," after which the Fed will observe the economy's reaction. It is worth noting that due to the government shutdown, the Fed will not be able to obtain the latest employment and inflation data at this meeting. (Jinshi)