U.S. Economic Growth Forecasted to Accelerate Slightly in 2026

According to Odaily, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) has released its annual forecast survey, indicating that the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a slightly faster pace next year, although job growth will remain weak. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to slow down further interest rate cuts. The survey, which includes insights from 42 professional forecasters, reveals a median economic growth prediction of 2%, an increase from the 1.8% forecast in October. Increased personal spending and business investment are expected to drive economic growth higher. However, nearly all forecasters agree that new import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are likely to reduce the growth rate by at least 0.25 percentage points. The report states, "Respondents consider 'tariff impact' as the largest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook." Stricter immigration enforcement is also seen as a factor restraining economic growth, while improved productivity is considered the most likely factor to push growth above expectations. Inflation is projected to be 2.9% by the end of this year, slightly lower than the 3% forecast in October, and is expected to decrease marginally to 2.6% next year, with tariffs contributing between 0.25 and 0.75 percentage points. Historically, job growth is expected to remain moderate, with approximately 64,000 new jobs added monthly, significantly lower than recent averages. The unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 4.5% by early 2026 and maintain that level throughout the year. Due to persistent inflation and only a slight increase in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with only a further 50 basis points reduction anticipated next year, approaching a neutral monetary policy rate.