Gold Prices Predicted to Approach $5,000 per Ounce by 2026

According to Odaily, Deutsche Bank forecasts that gold prices could near $5,000 per ounce by 2026 and surpass this psychological threshold in 2027. Analyst Michael Hsueh notes that after market positions are cleared, central banks' demand for gold will persist, coupled with the re-entry of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), potentially driving gold prices to $4,950 per ounce in 2026. In a report released on Wednesday, Hsueh raised the average gold price forecast for next year from $4,000 to $4,450 per ounce. For 2027, he set a target of $5,150 per ounce. Despite gold prices having fallen about 10% from their October peak, they have since recovered half of the lost ground. Hsueh observes that "gold is breaking historical patterns," with price volatility in 2025 reaching its highest level since 1980. Concerns over inflation, currency depreciation, and the global debt spiral have historically driven gold prices to new highs. Hsueh emphasizes that the current strong performance of gold is not solely due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, making it particularly noteworthy. He expects global central banks' "official" and "rigid" demand to continue pushing gold prices higher in 2026. In the third quarter, central bank gold purchases reached 220 tons, the third-highest on record, significantly surpassing second-quarter figures despite already high gold prices. He cites a central bank manager's view that gold is the "ultimate safeguard against tail-end risks of black swans." After four consecutive years of outflows, gold ETFs returned to net inflows in 2025. Hsueh deduces from the weak daily fluctuations in current net buying and selling that the recent profit-taking wave may have subsided. He believes the support level at $3,900 per ounce will remain solid. Hsueh notes a causal relationship in gold ETF fund flows, where price direction determines fund movement, and highlights that the beginning of the year is typically the most active phase for gold's seasonal performance. Historical data over the past 20 and 30 years shows that gold generally experiences positive month-on-month growth in January and February. Finally, based on data from the first nine months, Hsueh estimates that global mined gold production will reach 3,693 tons in 2025, indicating a limited supply response to high prices. His model predicts next year's supply at 3,715 tons, suggesting that demand is likely to continue outpacing supply.