Solana’s SOL continues to struggle with a decisive recovery as weakening on-chain activity, declining TVL, and the first negative ETF flows since launch dampen bullish momentum. A classic bear-flag breakdown is now pointing toward a potential move to $100—unless Solana can reclaim the critical $145–$150 resistance zone.Key TakeawaysSOL ETF flows flipped negative for the first time, posting $8.2M in outflows.Solana TVL dropped 20% in November and 32% from September’s peak.Network activity is weakening: active addresses down 6%, fees down 16% this week.Bear flag pattern projects a deeper correction toward $100.Upbit’s $36M SOL hot-wallet hack adds fresh uncertainty.ETF Outflows Break Momentum as Network Activity SoftensSolana’s strong recovery attempt ran into trouble on Wednesday as spot SOL ETFs recorded their first daily net outflow, ending an uninterrupted streak of inflows since launch.According to SoSoValue data, the $8.2M withdrawal suggests a cooling of institutional demand—just as network metrics begin to soften.Network health weakeningNansen data highlights a noticeable contraction:Active addresses: ↓ 6%Network fees: ↓ 16% (7-day decline)TVL: ↓ 20% in NovemberTVL from September peak ($13.23B): ↓ 32% to $9.1BMajor protocols saw substantial monthly drawdowns:Jito: ↓ 33%Jupiter: ↓ 28%Raydium: ↓ 31%Sanctum: ↓ 22%These trends typically reflect lower network usage, reduced capital efficiency, and lighter demand for blockspace—conditions that historically limit upside for SOL’s price.Upbit’s $36M Solana Hack Adds Short-Term RiskThe $36 million theft from Upbit’s Solana hot wallet on Thursday further shook market confidence.Why it matters:Upbit’s temporary halt on SOL deposits and withdrawals restricts liquidity on one of Asia’s largest exchanges, potentially intensifying volatility.Remarkably, SOL still climbed 3% to $143 after the announcement, signaling resilience—but this shock event may slow momentum toward the $150 level.Technical Setup: Bear Flag Break Implies $100 TargetSOL is currently trading inside a classic bear flag—a bearish continuation pattern that forms after a sharp drop, followed by a weak upward consolidation.Key levelsFlag support: ~$140Flag resistance: ~$145Breakdown trigger: Close below $140Pattern target: $99–$100 zone (≈30% drop)On the six-hour chart, SOL continues to make lower highs after topping around $170 on Nov. 17, signaling waning momentum.Trader MR Ape highlights $145 as the critical rejection zone:“$145 has rejected price three times already. Momentum is slowing again as SOL approaches it.”A confirmed break below $120—the lower boundary of the flag—could accelerate the drop toward $110, and later $95, where fresh buyers are expected to step in.Can SOL Break Above $150?For now, the answer leans no, unless two conditions change:1. Network activity improvesSOL needs rising fees, higher TPS utilization, and renewed DeFi inflows.2. ETF flows return positiveSustained inflows remain one of the strongest signals for institutional buy-side demand.Until then, the $145–$150 resistance zone is likely to hold.SOL’s Road to $150 Looks Difficult as $100 Looms BelowSolana’s price recovery faces multiple headwinds:weakening network usagedeclining TVLnegative ETF flowsfresh market uncertainty from the Upbit hackUnless bulls reclaim $150, the technical structure strongly leans bearish—with a potential move toward $100 if the bear flag breaks down.For now, Solana’s path forward depends on whether demand returns fast enough to invalidate the bearish continuation pattern, according to Cointelegraph.
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