Whether Trump's tariffs are legal may be decided early next year, with market predictions suggesting a higher probability of a ruling against Trump.

The Supreme Court may soon rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, a decision that will have profound implications for the scope of the US president's power. Lawyers believe a ruling this week is unlikely, with most expecting it to be made in early 2026. Polymarket data shows a 76% chance of a court ruling against the Trump administration and at least overturning some of the tariffs imposed under IEEPA. However, analysts and lawyers are preparing by considering several scenarios, such as: 1. A mixed ruling: One possible path the Supreme Court might take is to rule the "reciprocal" tariffs imposed under IEEPA illegal while retaining the relevant tariffs on fentanyl flows. 2. A court ruling that IEEPA tariffs are illegal: If the court rules all or part of the IEEPA tariffs illegal, importers will focus on refunds of already paid tariffs. 3. A court upholding the tariffs: For the market, this could mean maintaining the status quo.