US lawmakers are considering legislation to crack down on insider trading in prediction markets, stemming from controversy surrounding transactions related to Maduro's arrest.

U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce the "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026," which aims to establish restrictive rules against potential "insider trading" in prediction markets. The bill proposes prohibiting elected federal officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts related to government policies or political outcomes if they have or could reasonably have access to material non-public information during the course of their duties. The legislation stems from a recent widely discussed incident: hours before U.S. President Trump announced the U.S. military's nighttime arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, the implied probabilities of related contracts on Polymarket showed an abnormal increase. One account, after the confirmation of Maduro's arrest, turned an investment of approximately $32,500 into over $400,000, a return of over 1200%. This account had previously only participated in predictions related to U.S. intervention in Venezuela. In response, Kalshi's public relations account stated that its platform rules explicitly prohibit any trading based on material non-public information. Torres' office has not yet responded further regarding the details of the legislation, and Polymarket has also declined to comment. (The Block)