Polymarket predicts the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January has risen to 92%.

According to Polymarket data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rates are overwhelmingly dominant in forecasts surrounding the Fed's January 2026 policy meeting, with a current probability of approximately 92%. In contrast, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is about 8%, the probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points or more is about 1%, and the expectation of a rate hike is less than 1%. The cumulative trading volume of this contract has reached nearly $180 million.