In the Web3 world, cycles aren't unexpected; they're the norm. The alternation between bull and bear markets is like the tides of capital and the seasons of nature. For founders, the biggest challenge isn't predicting the next reversal, but rather how to survive the ups and downs, and even build long-term value against the tide. Recently, a16z crypto partner Arianna Simpson shared her over a decade of experience investing in the crypto industry in a podcast. From the shock of the Bitcoin whitepaper, to product-market fit for stablecoins, to the intersection of crypto and AI, and advice for founders. These observations and experiences aren't unique to Silicon Valley. Portal Labs believes they also offer valuable insights and lessons for Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors in China. The Nature of Cycles Arianna's entry into crypto began with the shock she felt upon first reading the Bitcoin whitepaper over a decade ago. But what truly kept her here wasn't that momentary thrill, but the ups and downs she experienced over the next decade. She witnessed the birth of Bitcoin, the boom of DeFi, the craze for NFTs, and also experienced the subsequent bubbles and cooldowns. It was through this long-term observation that she gradually came to a clear understanding: the crypto industry never grows linearly, but rather in dramatic waves, with sentiment and capital surging and retreating. Consequently, she shifted her focus from "predicting the next wave" to "identifying those building against the tide." Her investment approach is more of a follow-the-leader approach: following what the best founders are doing. When the strongest founders flock to stablecoins, capital should flow there; when cutting-edge teams continuously invest in crypto-AI or DeFi, new value troughs often emerge. Rather than first making grand assertions and then searching for projects to validate them, use the trajectory of top builders to calibrate your worldview and capital allocation. For Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors, this methodology is more actionable than "cycle prediction." For founders, a cool-down period isn't an excuse, but a screening tool: A company that can push its product and stack forward even in years without acclaim demonstrates the right direction and people. For allocators, the true assessment isn't the popularity of the topic, but whether the team can maintain speed, discipline, and mission-focused performance during challenging times. This sequence of "identifying talent, assessing long-term execution, and then discussing valuation" is more effective than any short-term narrative in weathering bull and bear markets. Narrowing the lens to stablecoins. Arianna's assessment is simple: its current focus isn't due to a new speculative story, but rather to real usage on both ends: consumers use it for cross-border transfers and to hedge against local currency fluctuations; businesses use it for settlement, transfers, and as a bridge between receivables and payables. More crucially, over the past year and a half, the two infrastructural "valve" of speed and cost have finally been unlocked, transforming stablecoins from a hypothetical payment network into a real settlement layer. This is particularly true for Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth individuals. For teams expanding internationally, the real bottleneck is often not the product, but the flow of funds: how to stably, cost-effectively, and traceably send funds to annotation teams in Southeast Asia, node maintainers in Africa, and channel partners in Latin America; how to enable overseas customers to complete payments without complex corporate processes; how to manage cyclical receivables in a US dollar environment and mitigate exchange rate risk in a local currency environment. The value of stablecoins lies not in the "coin" but in the "track." When you standardize fund inflows and outflows, identity verification, reconciliation receipts, and tax records onto a single, auditable track, the complexity of cross-border business will be significantly reduced. Of course, there will be more and more issuers, but users won't pay for every new token. Arianna's intuition is: in the short term, there will be a proliferation of stablecoins, but in the long term, there will be a convergence to a handful of stablecoins that are "scalable, reputable, and have a niche." Going forward, the front-end experience will be abstracted, making users virtually oblivious to the specific currency, while back-end clearing and settlement will be automatically handled by "interconnected tracks." This means that for future stablecoin development, the team shouldn't waste energy on the impulsive "I want to issue one too" approach, but rather focus on more pragmatic design, such as making your business processes, risk control, and financial systems thoroughly "stablecoin-native." When your product can naturally operate on USD denominated, stablecoin settled, and on-chain reconciliation, your cross-border efficiency and credibility will be significantly higher than its peers. For high-net-worth individuals, stablecoins are a new cash management tool and a "low-friction channel" for global liquidity. However, this does not mean risk-free. At the portfolio level, reserving an on-chain track for "liquidity turnover" and "hedging against local currency fluctuations" is more future-oriented for portfolio hygiene. Simply put, there are two principles: carefully select counterparties and decentralize custody and wallets; and make "compliance and explainability" the first constraint, not an afterthought. Crypto × AI × DePIN Arianna emphasized that supercycles are often not driven by a single technology, but rather by the superposition and resonance of several curves within the same time window. Today, the clearest combination is the decentralized incentives of crypto, the centralized computing power and data-hungry nature of AI, and the real-world resource orchestration of DePIN. Translated into the "practical" language of Chinese founders: We have a rare, long-term accumulation of experience in hardware supply chains, manufacturing and deployment, and edge node engineering. If you can use stablecoins to connect the "contribution-measurement-payment" chain, incentivizing the on-chain transfer of real-world data and resources, and then package these resources into standardized products (datasets, annotations, bandwidth, storage, and inference time slices) for AI consumption, you have the potential to become a "supply-side platform." This isn't just PowerPoint-style token economics; it's serious operational science: metric definition, anti-fraud measures, settlement frequency, dispute resolution, and reputation systems—all require engineering. Another crucial thread is authenticity. The existence of deepfakes isn't a threat; what's terrifying is the unverifiable environment. Verifiable timestamps, generation paths, device signatures, and traceability of operating entities are the "new water, electricity, and gas" of the future content and commodity internet. This represents a significant growth opportunity for Chinese teams working on global brand expansion, pre-owned trading, and luxury goods distribution. Do the hard but right thing: Make "verifiable authenticity" the default, not an optional feature. Let's look at AI Agents. Giving a half-baked agent your credit card for "self-service online shopping" is irresponsible; however, giving it a wallet with a limit, revocable functionality, and auditability, and letting it complete a set of transactions (subscriptions, API purchases, commission payments) within a clear policy, is realistic and feasible. In other words, "wallets are permissions systems." The real application lies not in the hyped "universal agent," but in the deeply specialized "bounded rational agent"—using an on-chain wallet to bind permissions, budgets, logs, and counterparties within a strongly constrained business domain. Financing and Governance The 2020–2021 funding environment may have left many Web3 investors with the misconception that there's no need for a deck, no need for a model, and investors will offer outrageous terms in Twitter messages. Arianna put it bluntly: That was a "twilight illusion," not the norm, and today we should get back to the basics. Prepare solid materials, present metrics honestly, and set a conservative but surmountable fundraising target. It's better to close a reasonable round of funding first and then build on that success than to start with 50 million and end up with nothing. For Chinese founders, a more realistic approach is: get the foundation running first, then talk about money. First, the engineering resilience of the technology and product, including performance, risk control, observability, and maintainability; second, compliance and policy pathways, including KYC/AML, cross-border data segmentation, auditable capital and data flows, and a closed-loop tax and invoice system; third, a verifiable closed-loop business model with real payments, positive unit economics, and a steady cash flow. In public narratives, focus less on "coins" and more on supply-side infrastructure: for example, using DePIN to standardize computing power, bandwidth, and sensor data into billable APIs, or using RWA to digitize existing assets and embed them into compliant issuance and liquidation processes. Once these three things have a clear chain of evidence, capital can be replenished in stages based on milestones, rather than letting financing drive the business. Governance also requires common sense. A 50/50 split isn't fair; it's inaction. Equity, boards of directors, reserved items, vesting periods, cliff periods, founder departure clauses, and intellectual property ownership—none of these are sexy, but each one determines whether you can weather the first major storm. Arianna even acknowledges the advantages of being a solo founder—at least it keeps you from falling out with yourself. Portal Labs recommends that instead of obsessing over the number of partners, it's better to clearly define the "list of rights and responsibilities" and "conflict resolution mechanisms." Rehearsing the worst-case scenario allows you to run faster in the best moments. Competition and Expansion Being copied isn't news; obsessing over the issue is. Arianna's approach is to reclaim the narrative: defining the conversation with product cadence, key metrics, and customer stories, rather than directing traffic to competitors. Chinese Web3 teams are particularly focused on strengthening their PR and communications infrastructure: a professional brand team, a media whitelist, key opinion leader advocates, product education within the user community, and transparency in technical documentation. Narrative isn't just PR rhetoric; it's evidence of consistent delivery. Meanwhile, uncontrolled growth can be both a blessing and a curse. When service levels are breached, respond in a tiered manner, like firefighting: first protect funds and user assets, then ensure availability, and finally optimize the user experience. When necessary, limiting traffic, creating temporary whitelists, outsourcing customer service and risk control, or even rapidly increasing computing power are all acceptable trade-offs. Write your disaster recovery plan when the situation is calm; don't just learn it after trending on social media. Mergers and acquisitions are another signal. Traditional giants are starting to act as buyers in crypto, and "puzzle-style mergers and acquisitions" are also emerging within the industry. Ideally, of course, you would be the acquirer, but an excellent acquisition could also be the best solution for the team, users, and early shareholders. The evaluation criteria are simple: strategic fit, user value, team continuity, and respect for the technical route. Leave your emotions to your circle of friends and the terms to your lawyers. Do the difficult but right things for a longer time. The market will not give founders standard answers, and neither will the cycle. Therefore, don't rush to predict the waves, but keep an eye on those who can still push the system forward in the face of headwinds, and then allocate time and resources to them. In the Chinese context, the answer is both simpler and more challenging: slogans aren't just for show; the ledgers, systems, and compliance documents must be solidified; growth isn't about trending searches, but about stable, reusable supply and payment collection; competition isn't about competing against each other, but about seizing the narrative and reclaiming the conversation through continuous delivery. If we had one message for China's Web3, Portal Labs believes it should be to focus on doing the difficult but right things for a longer period of time, chasing less hype and more on who's still around and whose systems are still running ten years from now. Cycles will continue to rise and fall, but what truly determines success or failure is never the weather, but the foundation upon which you build your house.
JinseFinance
Edmund
Cointelegraph
链向资讯
Bitcoinist