BTC continues to fluctuate sideways in the 84-85k range. Today, the 4.20 Teaching Chain Internal Reference "The 15th Week: Big Cakes are Sideways and Shrinking, Market Sentiment is Sluggish" mentioned that on-chain data shows that the current BTC market is experiencing the most serious period of retail investor shortage in history.
According to analysts' research, in this round of rise from $70,000 to $110,000, the activity index of small addresses fell by 16%, which is exactly the same as the situation at the end of the bull market in 2021, when institutions dominated and retail investors lagged behind. Glassnode's report further confirms this phenomenon: the group currently suffering the biggest losses is the new investors who entered the market after 2024, while long-term holders are still profitable, indicating that the market has entered the "veteran game" stage.
The recent period of shrinking volume and fluctuations show a structural change in which institutions are playing and retail investors are leaving the market. The direct impact of this structural change is the continued tightening of liquidity. Although the scale of institutional funding channels such as ETFs has exceeded 4 trillion yuan, signs such as the stagnation of stablecoin growth and the halving of altcoin trading volume indicate that ordinary retail investors are gradually moving away from the market. The contradiction in the current market is that BTC is favored by safe-haven funds due to the uncertainty of the Fed's policy, and has become an institutional asset allocation tool due to the ETF channel. This dual attribute causes prices to be slow to react to negative news and overly sensitive to positive news. Although the plan proposed by US senators to exchange gold certificates for BTC is innovative, it may also cause shocks in the sovereign monetary system. This policy-level swing has further exacerbated the wait-and-see sentiment of institutional investors. These contradictions have caused the market to fall into a vicious circle of high market value and low activity. The surface is calm but undercurrents are surging, and any breakthroughs in policy or technology may cause violent fluctuations.
The surge in early 2024 attracted a large number of newcomers, but the subsequent continuous volatility consumed the enthusiasm for speculation. Data shows that new investors who entered the market after March 2024 generally lost 15-20%, forming a negative demonstration of being locked in as soon as they entered the market. When the money-making effect of speculation disappears, a large number of impatient retail speculators will leave the market in disappointment.
The derivatives market accounts for more than spot trading, and complex tools such as contract leverage and option strategies have deterred ordinary investors. Institutions have formed information advantages through algorithmic trading, on-chain monitoring and other means. All these changes have made it more difficult for retail investors to survive.
What is more noteworthy is the change in the macroeconomic environment. The Fed's expected rate cut has been postponed, and the global tariff game continues. These factors have pushed up the prices of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, but have made the digital gold narrative of cryptocurrencies seem thin.
The current market is at a critical turning point. If the United States adopts policies such as BTC strategic reserves, it may replicate the institutionalization path of gold and promote price breakthroughs. Or there may be a strong money-making effect similar to the animal coin craze in 2021, which will drive retail investors back. Or there may be a leap in public chains or other on-chain applications, rekindling the enthusiasm of the VC coin sector. But in the short term, the market is more likely to maintain a "box shock + local hotspot" pattern. It seems that there is explosive power under the calm, but no one knows which lid will be lifted first.
When there is no better strategy, BTC's eight-character formula (stick to fixed investment and add positions when the price falls) may be the most reliable strategy. The market always rewards patient people. The most bland and boring garbage time may be the best golden time.
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