Being the chief trader is no longer enough; is Trump going to personally take charge?

Trump is upgrading his influence in the financial markets from simply posting recommendations to directly entering the game. The US president, jokingly referred to as the "chief trader," is now preparing to truly "open the door" through his company—entering the prediction market business. According to the latest media reports, Trump Media Technology Group announced on Tuesday that it will launch the prediction market service Truth Predict on its social platform Truth Social in partnership with Crypto.com. This service will allow users to bet on the outcomes of events such as sports, entertainment, politics, and economic trends, and plans to roll it out globally after meeting regulatory requirements. The timing of this move is quite delicate, as Trump and his family members have repeatedly faced scrutiny in recent years due to unusual stock price fluctuations and allegations of insider trading. From the stock price surge before family members joined the company to Trump's "buy" call before tariff policy changes, a series of events have made the market highly sensitive to the trading behavior of his camp. Prediction markets are becoming the hottest new arena on Wall Street. According to research platform Dune, prediction market trading volume hit a record high of over $2.3 billion last week. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the NYSE, recently invested $2 billion in Polymarket, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch related contracts before the end of the year. The entry of traditional financial giants is pushing this market, once considered a "digital casino," into the mainstream. Truth Predict: From "Social Platform" to "Prediction Market" Trump Media Technology Group's entry into the prediction market is a continuation of its strategy of deep integration with the cryptocurrency industry. The company will launch its prediction market service through the Truth Social social platform, the streaming platform Truth+, and the fintech brand Truth.Fi, in partnership with the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. The service will first undergo beta testing on Truth Social before a full rollout in the United States. Trump Media plans to launch the service globally once all necessary requirements are met. Prediction markets allow users to profit by predicting the outcomes of events such as sports, entertainment, political, and economic trends. Such event-based contract trading has seen strong momentum since last year's US presidential election. With increasing market attention, prediction markets are seen as a strong contender for wider acceptance in the financial world, with some experts believing they are more accurate than traditional polls in highly competitive scenarios. Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek stated, "Prediction markets have the potential to become a multi-billion dollar industry." This is not the first collaboration between the two companies. Earlier this year, Trump Media and Crypto.com reached an agreement with a blank check acquisition company to launch a new joint venture, employing a Treasury-like strategy to accumulate the cryptocurrency platform's native token, CRO, further deepening Trump's ties with the cryptocurrency industry. Kalshi and Polymarket, the world's two largest prediction market platforms, have attracted significant attention from venture capital firms and other investors in recent months, solidifying the prediction market's reach and engagement. The Shadow of the "Chief Trader": Insider Trading Suspicions Linger. As the Trump campaign ventures into prediction markets, questions surrounding unusual trading activity by his family members and affiliated companies have never ceased. In recent years, a series of companies associated with Trump and his inner circle have exhibited unusual trading activity before major personnel or policy announcements, raising suspicions of market manipulation and insider trading. One of the most notable events was the dramatic fluctuations in the US stock market due to the tariff policy. About four hours before announcing a suspension of tariffs, Trump posted in all caps on his Truth Social media platform: "This is a great time to buy!!! DJT." Although DJT is also an abbreviation of his own name, it is also the stock ticker for Trump Media. That day, DJT's stock price closed up 22.67%, and the estimated value of Trump's shares increased by $415 million. Similar situations have occurred multiple times. Last November, drone manufacturer Unusual Machines saw its stock price nearly triple in the four weeks leading up to the announcement of hiring Donald Trump Jr., with daily trading volume surging from 93,000 shares to 290,000 shares. This February, Trump Tower-based fintech group Dominari Holdings saw its stock price soar by 580% in the six weeks prior to announcing the addition of Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump to its advisory board. These suspicions are not isolated incidents. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has close ties to Trump, and the family of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have also drawn attention for their precise "timed" trades. These events continue to escalate, fueling accusations that the Trump camp is using its informational advantage to influence the market. Prediction Markets Soar: From "Digital Casinos" to Wall Street's Darling Trump's entry into the market at this time comes as prediction markets have transformed from a niche concept into a Wall Street darling. Data from research platform Dune shows that global prediction market trading volume reached a record high of over $2 billion last week. The hype has directly translated into valuations, with emerging platforms Polymarket and Kalshi leading the charge. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based platform, reportedly has a valuation approaching $15 billion after receiving a $2 billion strategic investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. Kalshi, the first event trading exchange in the US regulated by the CFTC, gained social media fame for its real-time mayoral election odds display on New York streets, with its cultural influence even extending to the popular animated series "South Park." Traditional financial giants have also entered the fray; the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest derivatives exchange, plans to launch financial contracts linked to sporting events and economic indicators by the end of the year. This move, along with ICE's investment in Polymarket and Nasdaq's exploration of asset tokenization, indicates that prediction markets and their underlying tokenization technology are moving from the periphery to the center of the financial system. Against this backdrop, Trump's "Truth Predict" is no longer merely a celebrity's commercial stunt, but a strategic move to position himself in a rapidly growing and increasingly mainstream financial arena. As Wall Street's "regulars" rush in, Trump, with his inherent star power and controversial appeal, clearly doesn't want to miss out on this feast.