Bitcoin surged to $92,000 on Wednesday, hitting a 45-day high as investors responded to signs that the White House might be dialing back its confrontational stance on global trade. The digital asset’s rally paralleled gold’s new record high, underscoring renewed demand for hedges amid macroeconomic turbulence.
While retail and spot markets cheer the price pump, a closer look at futures data reveals a more cautious tone from professional traders.
Crypto analysts have started floating $95,000 as the next big resistance level. But does the data back them up?
According to Laevitas, the current annualized premium on two-month BTC futures is around 6% well within the neutral zone. Typically, a bullish trend sees premiums stretch above 10%. So while Bitcoin’s $6,800 rally over the last 48 hours has caught attention, derivatives markets aren’t fully convinced just yet.
This cautious approach may stem from a not-so-distant memory: Bitcoin’s brief flirtation with $95K in early March, which ended in a huge reversal the very next day. After topping out near $95,000 on March 3, BTC dropped to $81,464 which shows how fragile these breakout attempts can be.
“Bitcoin’s surge to $92K reflects renewed optimism across risk assets, especially as the U.S.India trade agreement helps ease global tensions,” said Vincent Liu, CIO at Krono Research. “But futures markets are still signaling caution. Until there’s clearer guidance from the Fed at the May 6 meeting particularly on rate cuts it’s essential to stay prudent.”
The recent crypto upswing also came as stock markets regained ground. The S&P 500 rallied on Tuesday, narrowing its YTD decline to 10%, siding with Bitcoin’s 16% retreat from its January all-time high.
However, Bitcoin still appears more resilient than many high-profile equities. At its worst moment in March, BTC was down 30%+ less than the peak drawdowns for major tech stocks.
With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the trade dispute with China “unsustainable” and hinting at de-escalation, the equity market saw room to breathe. But Trump wasn’t ready to let the Fed off the hook. On his TruthSocial account, he renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of “choking growth” by holding off on rate cuts.
Despite optimism in crypto, traditional finance still shows signs of stress. Demand for short-term government bonds has surged, sending the 2-year Treasury yield down to 3.81%, vs 4.% a month ago. This rotation into safety typically signals uncertainty yet Bitcoin gained 6.3% monthly, shaking off the risk-off sentiment.
Does this mean the market sees BTC as a hedge again? Possibly — but big players aren’t quite betting the farm on that narrative just yet, it will be interesting to see if it can go above the $95K price trend.
One way to gauge institutional sentiment is through Bitcoin’s options skew. When traders expect a downside move, put options (bearish bets) get pricier, driving the 25% delta skew higher. If optimism is in the air, the skew goes negative.
Right now, that metric sits at around -2-3%. The last time the skew dropped below -6%, signaling real bullish momentum, was in late January when BTC was pushing $105K.
So far, it looks like market makers are staying on the sidelines until there’s clearer direction or until Trump and Powell reach a more clear point of view.
Despite shaky macro signals, Wall Street is bracing for a surprisingly strong earnings season. The so-called “Magnificent 7” tech giants are projected to post 15% earnings growth for Q1, according to FactSet. If numbers beat expectations, risk appetite could return — and that might give BTC the momentum it needs to break past $95K.
But for now, many traders are holding their breath. Until there’s more clarity on U.S.-China trade policy or a decisive Fed pivot in early May. Bitcoin’s next major leg up remains more of a possibility till it reaches a keep inflection point around $95K.
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