Bitcoin falls below $100,000: When will the Wall Street sell-off end?

The first week of November brought a chilling downturn to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, which hit an all-time high on October 11th, not only failed to hold the psychological barrier of $100,000 but also plummeted below $99,000, marking a new low in nearly six months. Ethereum also succumbed, hitting a low of the key support level of $3,000. Within 24 hours, over $2 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network, with long positions losing a staggering $1.63 billion and short positions losing $400 million. Behind these figures lies a complete collapse in market sentiment. Just a month ago, the market was celebrating Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark, with institutional investors rushing in and retail investors experiencing heightened FOMO (fear of missing out). However, in the first week of November, the market landscape shifted dramatically. Bitcoin plummeted from a high of $105,000 to a low of $98,500, a drop of over 6%. Ethereum fell from around $3,300 to $3,000, a drop of nearly 10%. The derivatives market was hit hardest. Coinglass statistics show that over $1.3 billion in liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with nearly 342,000 people liquidated. Long positions accounted for 85% of the losses, exhibiting a typical "long squeeze" pattern. The unique aspect of this decline is that it is not a technical correction, but rather a fundamental shift in fundamental expectations. The continued sell-off by Wall Street institutions became the final straw that broke the camel's back, with traditional financial giants beginning to reassess the risk-reward ratio of crypto assets. The shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was the main driver of this crash. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's hawkish comments last week downplayed market expectations for a December rate cut. Market expectations for a December rate cut have fallen from 90.5% to 67.5%, implying that "a longer period of high interest rates is forming." The strengthening US dollar, reaching a near six-month high, is putting direct pressure on non-interest-bearing assets such as Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve's shift in policy direction has shattered investors' illusions about loose monetary policy, leading to widespread pressure on risk assets. Structural problems within the industry are also significant. Approximately 400,000 bitcoins (about 2% of the circulating supply) were sold by long-term holders in October, indicating that early investors are taking profits. Meanwhile, Wall Street institutions are significantly reducing their holdings. Data shows that investors have withdrawn over $1.8 billion from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, further tightening market liquidity. Market analyst Damian Chmiel points out that if Bitcoin's price continues to fall below $100,000, it could trigger a more sharp sell-off, with the next target being the lows of around $74,000 seen in April. Elon Gu, senior analyst at Ultima Markets, believes that for Bitcoin to reverse its upward trend, it first needs to reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the high-volume trading zone around $111,000. Above this, $116,000 will be the next key resistance level. On the on-chain data front, the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has fallen back to the 13-14 range. Historically, this level has repeatedly marked inflection points in market liquidity, suggesting that stablecoin liquidity may be quietly rebuilding. Historical experience shows that extreme panic often foreshadows an approaching market bottom. However, investors should remain cautious until clear signs of a market reversal emerge. Whether Bitcoin can hold its current position will depend on the interplay between macroeconomic policy trends and the industry's own resilience.