The floodgates are wide open: A dovish chairman will push for aggressive interest rate cuts and even restart quantitative easing (QE), leading to a flood of US dollar liquidity. Money has nowhere to go?
Bitcoin becomes a "spillover".
Anti-inflation narrative revived: Extensive money printing will inevitably trigger inflation concerns. Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million instantly transformed it into "digital gold," attracting funds to hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies. Risk appetite surges: In a low-interest environment, government bonds and savings yield little to nothing. Funds are forced to shift to high-risk, high-return assets—Bitcoin being the first to be affected. 2. $200,000? Novogratz's crazy deductionNovoc's original words are:"If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates when it shouldn't and appoints a dovish chairman, Bitcoin will usher in the 'final explosive rise'!"
Why can it reach 200,000? The core lies in "narrative fission": Bitcoin has currently exceeded $110,000, thanks to the entry of spot ETF institutions and the halving cycle. If combined with the shift in Federal Reserve policy, it will attract large-scale allocations by traditional financial giants, completely breaking the balance between supply and demand. leaf="">Liquidity premium + inflation panic + FOMO sentimentTriple superposition, price space is difficult to estimate
History has already given hints:
In 2019, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, and Bitcoinsoared from $3,500 to $13,000
During the 2020 epidemic, Bitcoinsoared from $3,800 to $64,000
History has already given hints:
In 2019, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, and Bitcoinsoared from $3,500 to $13,000
In leaf="">(Increase of 1584%)
And this time, institutions have more ammunition: giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity have already built channels,and only lack the "loose east wind".
III. Hidden worries behind the carnival: America’s price
While predicting $200,000, Novogratz shook his head and sighed:
"Do I want it to happen? No! Because I love America."The "side effects" of a dovish chairman are extremely fatal
Loss of independence of the Federal Reserve: If the chairman becomes a political vassal and wantonly prints money to please the White House, it will destroy the credibility of the central bank
Risk of hyperinflation: Current US inflation is still above 3%, and a rash interest rate cut may cause prices to spiral out of control
Asset bubble burst: If policies are reversed after a short-term carnival,
Bitcoin may be halved and halved again
Even the top candidate, Waller, warned: Policies must be based on economic data rather than political pressureUnfortunately, what Trump wants is precisely an "obedient chairman."
Fourth, the opportunity is in front of you, but don’t go all in. Remember three military rules
Keep a close eye on the candidates’ statements: If Waller is elected (the highest probability), the market reaction will be relatively mild; if a “Trump direct descendant” like Hassett comes to power,
immediately bet on Bitcoin
Pay attention to stablecoin indicators: The total market value of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) is a leading indicator. As long as growth continues, it means funds are still flowing into the market.
Manage volatility effectively: After an interest rate cut, the phenomenon of "buying expectations and selling the facts" is common, and a short-term 30% plunge is not impossible
Historical pattern: The market is often under pressure three months before a new chairman is nominated; three months after the nomination, risk appetite rebounds. The window of opportunity is now! 5. One Gamble, Two Destinies Novogratz's prediction essentially questions the foundations of the U.S. monetary system: Which is better, market freedom or political correctness? If the Federal Reserve becomes completely "Trumpian," Bitcoin's path to $200,000 might be unimpeded, but this might also be followed by the dust cloud of the collapse of the U.S. dollar's hegemony. For the "leeks," this presents both an opportunity and a trap. Remember: During a bull market, don't forget who's filling the pool—and when the tap turns off, the whales are the first to flee. Operational Guide: Join the Community: Reply "Join the Group" to get updates on the Fed's selections and real-time operational strategies. Target Spot Markets: Focus on BTC, ETH, and compliant stablecoins (such as Circle, the issuer of USDC).
Save the bullet: The new chairman's debut in June 2026 will be the moment of decisive battle.
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