Bitcoin value trend research: the value evolution code in four halvings

Source: Future Brother

This article will focus on the four halving events of Bitcoin from 2012 to 2024, systematically sort out the halving mechanism of Bitcoin, the trend of inflation rate changes, and combine the market performance before and after the halving to deeply explore the influence of price trends. Through historical data analysis and macro comparison, this article points out that Bitcoin has entered a cycle period with an inflation rate lower than that of gold, and its scarcity is becoming more and more prominent, gradually possessing the long-term value logic to compete with traditional assets. At the same time, from the perspective of the cyclical rhythm of the four halvings, although the increase since the halving in 2024 has been moderate, it is still in the stage of accumulating momentum, and the real window may be gradually opened between 2025 and 2026. At the end of the article, the core value foundation of Bitcoin is discussed, including scarcity, decentralization mechanism and deflation model, pointing out that its logic as "digital gold" is becoming increasingly mature.

1. Bitcoin halving cycle basic reward and inflation rate:

Bitcoin was designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, with a total issuance of 21 million pieces. In the early days, miners could receive 50 BTC as a reward for each successful block mined. This reward is automatically halved every 210,000 blocks mined (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance.

BTC's halving cycle officially began in 2012, with a halving every four years, and halving in 2024. Each block rewards 3.125 BTC, and the annual inflation is: 52560x3.125=164,250 pieces, accounting for about 0.782% of the total. The inflation rate of about 0.78% is lower than the annual inflation rate of most developed countries, and the total inflation rate of gold mining is about 1.5%-2%. Currently, BTC has entered a period where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold.

Fig.1 Bitcoin halving cycle reward and inflation chart

As shown in the chart: when each block has 50 rewards, the annual increase is about: 52560x50=2.628 million, accounting for about 12.5% ​​of the total 21 million, and in 2025, when each block has 6.25 rewards, the annual increase is: 52560x6.25=328,500, accounting for about 1.564% of the total 21 million

As of 2025-5-7 At around 14:00, a total of BTC was mined: 19,861,268 pieces, accounting for about 94.58%, and the total market value was about 2 trillion US dollars ($2034,300,009,004). Compared with the last halving cycle in 2020, about 18385031 pieces were mined at that time, accounting for about 87.5%, and the total market value was about 161.8 billion US dollars. After about 5 years, the total market value increased by about 1236%. The annual inflation rate in the next 4 years was only 0.782%. Comparison of inflation rates in major countries around the world from 2019 to 2025

China's inflation rate in 2019 was about 2.9%, and the U.S. inflation rate was 2.3%. At that time, due to the COVID-19 subsidy in 2020, we predicted that the substantial increase in U.S. dollar subsidies would cause a significant increase in inflation rates from 2020 to 2022. The U.S. inflation rate did reach a high of 8%, and then declined year by year due to the Fed's interest rate hike policy. By 2024, it had dropped to around 2.2%. China's annual inflation rate was about 0.2%, which was a major country with a better inflation rate (2019-2024: data from official statistical agencies of various countries. 2025: data is the forecast value of the IMF report and actual updates of the International Monetary Fund.) Most developed countries have statistics of around 2.5%, but the actual shopping and currency depreciation experience should be significantly greater than the statistics.

At this time, this Bitcoin halving will halve the inflation rate of BTC again, and will enter a new historically lower inflation level of 0.782%. In principle, a reduction in the inflation rate is not a bad thing for any asset, because it will further increase scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean that the value of the asset will rise 100% in a short period of time, but it is a relatively important anti-depreciation factor.

2. Comparative analysis of the market performance of Bitcoin after the four rounds of halving:

Since the advent of Bitcoin, each halving of block rewards has had a profound impact on the BTC market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four rounds of halving events have shown some relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This article also extracts some rules with reference value for readers by comparing the market price trends before and after each round of halving in detail. History will never repeat itself, but there will always be similar rules before reaching the peak or approaching destruction.

Fig.3 Value change data of BTC in four halving cycles

As shown in Fig.3, the trend data of BTC in the first half of the year and one year after the halving are counted, as well as the trend of the highest point in the corresponding period. As can be seen from the figure, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply after each halving. Calculated based on the closing price on the day of halving, the increase in 2012 was more than 8,000% within one year after the halving, about 286% in 2016, about 475% in 2020, and only about 31% within one year after the halving in 2024 (the highest so far is 68.75%-$109,588).

1. There is generally a significant increase in the six months before the halving

Looking back at the four rounds of halving events, Bitcoin usually gradually enters the rising channel six months before the halving. For example:

• When the halving occurred in 2012, the increase was 141.03% compared to 6 months ago

• When the halving occurred in 2024, the increase was 118.88% compared to 6 months ago

This stage often corresponds to the process of the market gradually pricing in the “halving expectation”, and has a strong preparation signal value.

2. The core outbreak period is 6 to 12 months after halving, but it is not necessarily the highest point

Three rounds of historical experience have shown that the 6th to 12th month after halving is the main rising wave stage of Bitcoin:

• 2012: One year later, the increase reached 8181.51%

• 2016: One year later, the increase was 286.29%

• 2020: One year later, the increase was 475.64%

• 2024: It has not yet been a year, and the current increase is 31.18%, with a maximum of 68.75% ($100.9k)

Especially in 2012 and 2020, it presents a typical structure of "consolidation within half a year, followed by an outbreak". One year later, it will enter the maximum outbreak period and reach a staged historical high. The 2024 halving has just passed a year. If history repeats itself, the real outbreak window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026.

3. The trend in the first year after the halving has a preliminary reference for judging the trend

After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin rose by 10.02% in one month, but then fluctuated and pulled back in the next two months, and was in the overall accumulation stage. As of October 2024 (halving half a year later), the price has only risen slightly by 6.30% relative to the halving day, far from entering the main rising stage. But this is not uncommon in history. In 2016 and 2020, the market was officially launched half a year after the halving.

4. The peak of each bull market mainly occurs within 6-12 months one year after the halving.

According to the data from the first three rounds, the highest price of the halving cycle relative to the closing price on the day of the halving occurred in the mid-term before the next halving:

• 2012: The highest increase was 9237.15%

• 2016: The increase was 2825.84%

• 2020: The increase was 700.28%

After the current halving in 2024, the current high point of $109,588 has appeared, which is 68.75% higher than the halving day, and has not yet entered the exponential outbreak stage. This rule only applies to the end of this round, because after this round, if BTC can reach a value of up to 300,000-500,000 or even 1 million, then its valuation volume is already very large. The next halving, unless the reference anchor depreciates or the application exploration is further expanded, such as interstellar exploration. Otherwise, it is difficult to see a multiple increase.

Chart summary:

The historical halving cycle of Bitcoin presents a highly consistent three-stage rhythm:

Accumulating momentum to rise (6 months before halving) → Steady oscillation (6 months after halving) → Main rising wave outbreak (6~18 months after halving) The current halving in 2024 is about to be completed for a year, which means that the market may still be accumulating energy for the later outbreak. Similar to the eve of 2017, coincidentally, it is also the early days of Trump's presidency. At the same time, the Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly assists our reference value point of view that is still in the process of accumulating strength: but historical data and rules are only of reference value. We cannot blindly follow the guidance of the data, but also have enough self-judgment to study DYOR.

Fig.4 Bitcoin price Stock-to-flow chart

Third, BTC's own long-term value scientific attributes:

The value of an asset comes from consensus and its own value, and the long-term consensus must come from its inherent advancement and scientific attributes and irreplaceable first-mover. Bitcoin (BTC) is not only a cryptographic asset, but also an innovative achievement at the intersection of multiple disciplines such as science and technology, economics, mathematics, and cryptography. Its long-term value is not maintained by market speculation alone, but is based on a set of rigorous, verifiable, and anti-manipulation system designs.

1. Scarcity:

As we mentioned earlier, the total amount of Bitcoin is constant at 21 million, written into the underlying code by Satoshi Nakamoto, and gradually released through the block reward halving mechanism. It is halved every four years, and all will be issued around 2140. Compared with the unlimited issuance mechanism of legal currency, Bitcoin has a natural deflationary feature, which supports its long-term appreciation logic from the perspective of supply and demand.

Scarcity design is the core pillar of Bitcoin's anti-inflation, laying the foundation for it to become "digital gold".

2. Decentralization: Consensus mechanism guarantees network neutrality

The Bitcoin network relies on the decentralized PoW (proof of work) consensus mechanism provided by computing power, and any node can verify transactions and participate in maintaining the ledger. This structure effectively avoids problems in traditional financial networks such as centralized single point failure, abuse of power, and system control. The great global decentralization also avoids 51% attacks to the greatest extent.

3. Deflation model against fiat currency depreciation

As shown in Fig2, the built-in deflationary issuance model of Bitcoin is in sharp contrast to the inflation structure of fiat currencies in various countries around the world. Especially in the context of large-scale QE and currency flooding by global central banks since 2020, Bitcoin has gradually proved that it can become a hedging tool against the risk of fiat currency depreciation and asset bubbles. BTC is gradually becoming a safe haven for global funds in the "era of gradual distrust of fiat currencies."

4. Technological attributes: advanced cryptography + peer-to-peer network design

Bitcoin comprehensively applies the following cutting-edge technologies:

• Elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA): ensure account security and private key signature

• SHA-256 hash algorithm: ensure data immutability

• Merkle tree structure: efficient verification of transactions within blocks

• P2P peer-to-peer network: realize global value transfer without intermediaries

The combination of these core technologies makes Bitcoin an extremely robust and unforgeable value transmission network with unlimited scalability, laying a solid foundation for subsequent second-layer expansion (such as lightning network and ecological applications). BTC is not only an asset, but also a masterpiece of cryptographic technology engineering. Future quantum-resistant updates are also worth further anticipation.

5. Challengers of the global financial order: alternative consensus assets for the change of the US dollar trend

The world is currently experiencing a wave of de-dollarization: settlements between countries are beginning to shift to local currencies, gold and decentralized assets. Bitcoin, with its non-sovereign objectivity, globalization, scarcity and other characteristics, has become an important channel for asset transfer and value storage in emerging markets and turbulent countries. It has built a new financial order model that coexists with the US dollar and gold but is independent - "a neutral system of consensus currency". When "certain countries' credit" is difficult to trust, relying on objective algorithmic credit will become a moat between the international community. Of course, regulatory agencies in various countries also need to intervene further to prevent the frequent occurrence of illegal activities.

6. Potential financial infrastructure of interstellar civilization (not yet applied, a personal exploration point of view)

Bitcoin is currently the only value protocol that does not rely on any country, bank, or Internet entity. Its ledger can exist at any node between planets, and only electricity and computing power are needed to maintain the network. This structure is naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as Mars or lunar exploration, and is easy to use and apply quickly and directly. However, since human exploration of extraterrestrial space is still in the rough stage, and there has been no major breakthrough in stable login and arrival, this is limited to personal fantasy. But if we look at the 30-50 year cycle, it seems that initial planetary applications are not completely impossible. Bitcoin (or credit-like points) can be used as the underlying token of human digital civilization.

So the overall scientific attributes of BTC:

Supply ceiling (scarcity) + consensus strength (decentralization);

Real world background: legal currency credit continues to weaken, debt bubble expansion;

In the uncertainty of the future, Bitcoin's "anchoring attribute" is becoming more and more prominent.

Fourth, BTC's main long-term trend value summary

This article draws the following conclusions through the performance analysis of the BTC halving cycle and the study of its long-term scientific attributes:

The four halving cycles of Bitcoin show a highly consistent market rhythm: that is, the expectation before the halving drives the rise, the short-term consolidation after the halving accumulates momentum, and then the main rising wave market is ushered in. From the perspective of inflation rate, after the halving in 2024, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin will drop to 0.78%, which is lower than gold for the first time, further consolidating its position as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of continued high inflation, credit expansion, and increasingly large debt deficits in the global legal currency system, Bitcoin's deflation model and decentralized characteristics are attracting more and more attention and allocation from traditional capital.

Although short-term market fluctuations still exist and the possibility of the sudden appearance of black swans cannot be ignored, the logic of Bitcoin's long-term value is gradually becoming clear: it is not only a cryptocurrency, but also a new type of asset based on cryptography and consensus. In the future cycle, its long-term value potential, its ability to hedge inflation, the irreplaceable nature of its underlying technology, and the further expansion of ecological development will continue to empower it and build the core value barrier that "digital gold" should have.

Viewpoint reminder: Some people classify it as such because there are speculation or concept fraud in the market. This is also an objective research attitude (or it can be said that projects that rely solely on speculation are difficult to last, such as many memes)

Risk warning: The discussion of the halving cycle and long-term value in this article is only for popular science and learning reference research, not investment advice. Please carefully research and form your own judgment logic, and do not blindly follow anyone, DYOR.