Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer, Bitwise; Translated by: Jinse Finance
Bitcoin's sideways consolidation suggests its IPO moment is approaching—which is why BTC allocation ratios are expected to increase.
Jordi Visser is one of my most admired macroeconomic thinkers, and I read every article he writes.
His latest article (see Jinse Finance's previous report "Bitcoin's Silent IPO) explores a core question: Despite a constant stream of positive news—strong ETF inflows, breakthroughs in regulation, and continued growth in institutional demand—why is Bitcoin still frustratingly stuck in sideways or even downward trading.
This is the best analysis I've read in the past six months about the current state of the Bitcoin market, and I highly recommend it. Visser believes that Bitcoin is undergoing a "silent IPO," transforming from a crazy idea into a mainstream success story. He points out that when stocks complete this transformation, they typically consolidate for 6 to 18 months before starting an upward trend. For example, Facebook went public on May 12, 2012, at $38 per share. For over a year afterward, its stock price remained flat or even declined, only regaining its IPO price of $38 15 months later. Google and other high-profile tech startups have shown similar trends. Visser states that sideways movement doesn't necessarily indicate a problem with the stock itself. This situation often arises because founders and early employees cash out and exit—those who bet on the high-risk startup have now reaped hundreds of times their initial investment and naturally want to cash out. The process of insider selling and institutional buying takes time; only after this transfer of ownership reaches a certain equilibrium can the stock price resume its upward trend. Visser points out that this is remarkably similar to Bitcoin today. Those early believers who bought Bitcoin when it was $1, $10, $100, or even $1000 now possess epoch-making wealth. As Bitcoin has entered the mainstream—ETFs are listed on the NYSE, large corporations are establishing Bitcoin reserves, and sovereign wealth funds are entering the market—these investors can finally cash out their returns. Hats off to them! Their patience has paid off handsomely. Five years ago, if someone were to sell $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, it would likely throw the market into chaos; but today, a diversified buyer base and ample trading volume allow for a smoother absorption of such large transactions. It's important to note that on-chain data shows a complex composition of sellers. Therefore, Visser's analysis only represents one part of the current market drivers, but it's a crucial part and deserves our consideration of its significance for the future market. Here are two core points I extracted from this article: Point 1: Strong Bullish Potential Many cryptocurrency investors were frustrated after reading Visser's article: "Early adopters are dumping Bitcoin on institutions! Do they know something we don't?" This interpretation is completely wrong. Early investor dumping doesn't mean the end of an asset's journey, but rather the beginning of a new phase. Consider Facebook as an example: Admittedly, its stock price remained below $38 for a year after its IPO, but it has now risen to $637, a surge of 1576%. Back in 2012, if I could have bought all of Facebook stock at $38, I would have done so without hesitation. Of course, investing during Facebook's Series A funding round might have yielded even higher returns, but it would have also carried significantly greater risks. The same applies to Bitcoin today. In the future, we may find it difficult to see Bitcoin achieve a 100x return within a year, but once this "transfer phase" is complete, its upside potential remains enormous. As Bitwise pointed out in its "Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" report, we believe Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035, a prediction I personally consider conservative. I'd like to add one more point: there's a key difference between Bitcoin after the early OGs have sold off their holdings and a company after its IPO—a company needs to continue growing after its IPO. Facebook couldn't jump from $38 to $637 overnight because its revenue and profits weren't enough to support such a valuation. It needed to expand revenue, develop new business lines, and focus on mobile, all of which involved risk. But Bitcoin is different. Once the early OGs have sold off their holdings, Bitcoin doesn't need to do anything more. For it to grow from a $2.5 trillion market capitalization to a golden $25 trillion, all it needs is widespread acceptance. I'm not saying this will happen overnight, but it could very well grow faster than Facebook. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin's consolidation is a "gift"—an excellent opportunity to buy more before it resumes its upward trend. Viewpoint Two: The Era of 1% Bitcoin Allocation is Over. As Visser stated in his article, companies that have completed an IPO are far less risky than startups. They have broader equity distributions, are subject to stricter regulations, and have more opportunities for business diversification. Investing in Facebook after its IPO is far less risky than funding a college dropout working in a party house in Palo Alto. The same applies to Bitcoin. As Bitcoin has transitioned from early adopters to institutional investors and matured as a technology, it no longer faces the existential risks it did a decade ago, and its maturity as an asset class has significantly increased. This is clearly reflected in Bitcoin's volatility—since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, its volatility has decreased dramatically.Historical Bitcoin Volatility
Data source: Bitwise Asset Management, data range: January 1, 2013 to September 30, 2025
This provides investors with an important insight: In the future, Bitcoin's returns may be slightly lower than in the past, but volatility will decrease significantly. As an asset allocator, my response to this change is not to sell—after all, we predict that Bitcoin will remain one of the best-performing asset classes globally over the next decade—but to increase holdings. In other words, lower volatility means holding more of this asset is safer. Visser's article further convinced me of a trend—in the past few months, Bitwise has held hundreds of meetings with advisors, institutions, and other professional investors, and we've found that the era of a 1% Bitcoin allocation is completely over. More and more investors need to start with 5% for their BTC allocation. Bitcoin is experiencing its IPO moment. If history is any different, we should embrace this new phase by increasing our holdings.
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