Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise; Compiler: 0xjs@黄金财经
There is nothing left to say about the November 5th election.
If you missed my previous comments, here are my predictions:
In the short term, a Trump victory is better than a Harris victory.
In the long run, no matter who wins, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will thrive.
Altcoins face greater regulatory risks under a Harris regime than under a Trump regime.
The only "bad" outcome for cryptocurrencies is a Democratic sweep, as it would embolden fringe elements in the Democratic Party that are openly opposed to cryptocurrencies.
But even in this case, I would buy on the dip.
Because if the past four years have taught me anything, it is this: Washington can't stop cryptocurrencies. It can change their trajectory. It can speed up or slow down progress. It can bring more confusion or new clarity.
But it can’t stop it.
One of the things I love about presidential elections is that it gives you a chance to reflect on what’s happened over the past four years.
Are things better or worse than they were when we last voted in 2020?
When you do that in crypto, the results are overwhelming. Despite a hostile regulatory environment—think Chokehold 2.0, countless SEC lawsuits, and a plethora of conflicting or ambiguous statements—the progress we’ve made is astounding.
Pick any statistic you want, it’s true.
Cryptocurrency Progress: 2020 vs. 2024
Source: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana price data provided by Bitwise Asset Management as of November 2, 2020 and November 2, 2024. CME Bitcoin futures open interest, DEX volume, and monthly volume (Bitcoin network) from The Block, using full month values for October 2020 and October 2024. Crypto daily volume (7DMA) from The Block as of November 6, 2020 and November 3, 2024. Bitcoin spot ETF AUM and stablecoin AUM from The Block as of November 2, 2020 and November 2, 2024. DeFi TVL from The Block as of November 4, 2020 and November 2, 2024. Monthly volume (Ethereum + Layer 2) from The Block and GrowThePie as of October 2020 and October 2024. RWA.XYZ is the top 20 asset managers with tokenized funds as of 11/2/2024. All other data as of 11/4/24 is from Bitwise Asset Management.
In the crypto space, we focus so much on immediate price movements that we often lose sight of long-term trends. The presidential election provides us with a good opportunity to look back and see how far we have come.
When you look at the statistics above, you should ask yourself one question: Is this trend going to continue? In my opinion, the answer is yes.
Our view is that no matter who wins on Election Day, November 5:
Spot crypto ETF inflows will continue
Stablecoins will continue to grow rapidly
Institutions will continue to “leave zero” and increase allocations to crypto
Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets
Blockchain will get faster and cheaper
Real-world applications like Polymarket will continue to break through and gain mainstream adoption
Make no mistake: the outcome of the November 5 election matters, especially in the short term. But in my view, in the long term, the outcome of the November 5 election will be somewhere between a speed bump and a strong wind.
Neither will stop this train in its tracks.
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