BTC is an IQ filter

Eight days ago, on August 14th, BTC hit a new all-time high of 124.5k. Eight days later, today, BTC plummeted to a low of 111.7k. The maximum retracement exceeded 10%. Many people began to waver and gave up. What does -10% mean? It means 100,000 becomes 90,000, a loss of 10,000 in 8 days. It means 1 million becomes 900,000, a loss of 100,000 in 8 days. It means 10 million becomes 9 million, a loss of 1 million in 8 days. It means 100 million becomes 90 million, a loss of 1 million in 8 days. It means 100 million becomes 90 million, a loss of 10 million in 8 days. ... Faced with the overwhelming urge to sell at the top, why do some people flee in panic, forever missing out, while others remain steadfast and weather bull and bear markets? Some of the opinions written by netizen @AdamBLiv about the psychological problems of holding BTC are quite interesting. Jiaolian compiled them here for everyone to discuss.

The cruel truth about BTC ownership

The cruel truth about owning BTC is not what you think.

It has nothing to do with access channels, knowledge education or so-called "financial intelligence".

There is a more unknown but irrefutable essence hidden behind it.

BTC is like the Stanford marshmallow experiment for 8 billion adults[1].

And 90% of people have already given up.

Note[1]: The Stanford Marshmallow Experiment is a child psychology experiment designed by Walter Mischel in the 1960s. The tester asked the children to face a piece of marshmallow alone and told them that if they waited 15 minutes without eating it, they could get an extra piece. The experiment was designed to study the relationship between the ability to delay gratification and future success.

Here is a disturbing fact:

BTC not only screens capital power.

It itself screens cognitive power. The same cognitive traits that predict lifetime wealth accumulation also predict whether someone will hold on to their Bitcoin holdings even when it plummets 80%. This isn't accidental. It's evolutionary selection pressure.

There are three psychological barriers that hinder the true ownership of BTC:

The first barrier: abstract reasoning ability (understanding digital scarcity and cryptographic proof)

The second barrier: emotional regulation ability (withstanding the test of fluctuation cycles)

The third barrier: technological autonomy (mastering private keys and self-custody)

Most people hit a wall at the first barrier and never stop there.

Big data is ruthless:

The correlation between IQ and lifetime income is 0.46

Higher IQ = lower time preference (correlation -0.23)

Even after 2008, cognitive ability can still predict holdings of risky assets

Each IQ point increase = annual income increase of US$234-616 (approximately RMB 2,500-4,500)

A cumulative IQ of 10 points = enough to save for a down payment on a Manhattan apartment in New York City in 30 years

The current concentration level has reached extremes:

97 largest addresses: hold 14% of the total

ETF funds: account for 5.9% and continue to grow

Corporate treasury: account for 5% (such as companies like MicroStrategy)

Sovereign states: hold 2.5%

Total locked: 27% of the total 21 million

One ​​out of every four BTC will never be circulated again. The culture of "hoarding" isn't just a meme within the community. It's also a cognitive filter. Meta-analysis shows that intelligent individuals have a lower delay discount rate—they truly are able to wait for greater future returns rather than panic selling. Real-world example: Surviving the 2018 bear market vs. selling in anger and switching to Dogecoin. Every fluctuation is like a centrifuge: Impatient retail investors: Panic selling Disciplined whales: Accumulating funds and buying In the past six months, only 23% of BTC has been transferred. Exchange balances have hit a multi-year low. Circulating supply is essentially disappearing. ETFs are closing in: BlackRock IBIT: Over $75 billion in assets under management Annualized management fee: 0.2%-1.5% This is digital sharecropping—you see the crops, but BlackRock owns the land. When your BTC crosses the moat, rent begins to be collected.

By 2040, the situation will be determined:

99.6% of BTC have already been minted

Block rewards will drop to 0.195 BTC every 10 minutes

ETFs may control more than 10% of the total supply

New supply will become insignificant

Latecomers can only rent exposure (to BTC) through toll booths established by custodians.

Psychological profile of a successful BTC holder:

- Highly abstract reasoning ability

- Low time preference

- Emotional fortitude

- Technical practical ability

- Contrarian thinking mode

These traits are rarer than Americans following healthy eating guidelines.

Most people view BTC as a get-rich-quick scheme. They only seek price increases but fail to understand the concept of digital scarcity. They want returns but reject volatility. They crave sovereignty but shirk responsibility. BTC only gives back what you give. Never a cent more. What's the harsh truth? Whether you can hold BTC doesn't depend on your bank account balance. It depends on your psychological makeup.

Can you understand the nature of money in an abstract way?

Can you endure for years for long-term returns?

Can you remain calm during an 80% plunge?

If not, you will ultimately be just a renter. Three cognitive gears must mesh perfectly: Gear One: Higher IQ => Higher Income Gear Two: Higher IQ => Higher Savings Rate Gear Three: Higher IQ => Lower Time Preference If even one gear is missing, you’ll be stuck in fiat currency forever. The torque of compound interest is relentless. Self-custody is the ultimate filter: Lessons have become increasingly clear after the Mentougou incident (losses exceeding $450 million). Hardware wallet sales surge after each exchange collapse. Today, 35% of crypto assets are held in self-custody, but only 25% will be in 2022. Either master mnemonics and cold storage, or pay perpetual custody rent.

Strict action guide:

Get BTC immediately (hardware wallet sales will reach 5.8 million units in 2024)

Study the theory of sound money (Mises, Austrian School of Economics)

Automated disciplined investment (regular fixed amount strategy win rate 3:1)

Escape the ETF fee trap (0.2%-1.5% compound interest erosion is endless)

Get ahead of institutional layout (whether you are ready or not, they are on the way)