BTC returns to $94,000, Trump holds a grand Trump dinner, will the bull market return quickly?

Under great pressure, Trump finally backed down.

The global market took a roller coaster ride last week. Tariffs had just taken a breather, and Trump and Powell started a fight on Wednesday. You blasted me for being slow in making decisions and said you might as well step down. I accused you of disrupting the market and making it difficult for the Federal Reserve. Trump exerted extreme pressure, and Powell would never rescue the market. The two were about to fight, and the global financial market was in a state of panic, the U.S. stock market plummeted, and the voice of recession was heard everywhere.

As for Powell, Trump was on a fast track. When asked by the media whether he would fire Powell, Trump said righteously, "Absolutely not, these are all rumors from the media, I have no intention of firing him," completely forgetting that he had previously published three articles in one day to criticize and threaten Powell. In fact, in addition to the improvement of macro risks, there are indeed many positive factors from the industry alone. The crypto market has recovered, and uninvited guests have come again.

Trump suddenly had an idea and thought of the MEME coin he had issued before - Trump. Trump, who was criticized for making 800,000 people stand guard, has made a new move. In the early morning of April 24, the TRUMP official website suddenly announced a "world's most exclusive invitation", planning to host a banquet at the Trump Golf Club in Washington on May 22 this year to invite the top 220 coin holders. Among them, the top 25 coin holders will not only be able to attend the dinner, but will also be invited to an exclusive reception before the dinner to have dinner with Trump face to face. On the second day, a VIP White House tour was even arranged to lead everyone to visit the White House.

From the perspective of the marketing method of the dinner, the serious Buffett is far less proficient than Trump in using it. Judging from the most recent dinner, when selling NFTs in September last year, Trump held a dinner for the first 47 holders, and he also caused a small rebound in NFTs by shouting "Let NFTs be hot again." Excluding the crypto space, there are countless dinners under the banner of Trump. Data shows that since 2018, the Trump campaign has held at least 15 competitions offering the opportunity to have breakfast, lunch or dinner with the president. Dinner has become Trump's core means of fundraising and donations.

Of course, Trump's story can be sung, in addition to potential political donations, the big players' buying orders are indeed due to the market turning better. If it were at the beginning of this month, even if the president declared, it would be difficult to save the lost liquidity. From the market perspective, despite the constant declarations of a bullish rally, it is too early to talk about a reversal. In the final analysis, the external environment has not completely improved, and Trump's changing policies can still cause huge market fluctuations. The world is still in a tightening cycle, and liquidity issues have not yet been resolved. From the perspective of market data, the low turnover rate and the decline in implied volatility that can be seen with the naked eye have confirmed that market sentiment has only improved, rather than being unanimously optimistic.

From a long-term perspective, with the stabilization of tariffs and interest rate cuts, in the current context of controllable inflation, strong employment rates, and controllable recession expectations, the long-term bullish trend of US dollar assets has not changed. However, in the short term, the market has policy fluctuations in the front and recession expectations in the back. The partial improvement of the industry environment is difficult to change the direction of the entire market. As the old saying goes, economic data is the key.

It is worth noting that this week's economic schedule is very busy. In addition to the US non-farm payroll data week, Wednesday also has the US first quarterGDP data and the PCE inflation data tool that the Federal Reserve is concerned about. For participants, more data means drastic fluctuations, and hedging is essential.