Comparison of the seven major centralized exchanges: Which one is the real money printing machine for investors?

Written by: Lucida Source: Medium "Isn't it all the same which exchange I buy cryptocurrencies on?" — This is a common thought among many investors, especially beginners. They believe that as long as they choose the right asset, an exchange is nothing more than a trading conduit. But is this really the case? To thoroughly understand this question, LUCIDA conducted a systematic data comparison. We will focus on the following three core dimensions, providing a comprehensive analysis of seven major centralized exchanges (CEXs): Binance, OKX, Bitget, Gate, MEXC, Bybit, and Kucoin: Profitability: On which exchange are you more likely to buy a "dark horse" with astonishing gains?

Risk Control: Which exchange is less likely to encounter the trap of "breaking the IPO price" or "cutting in half"?

Speed ​​of New Coin Listing: Which exchanges can help you get on top of popular coins and capture early dividends?

The answer may be more complicated than you think. This is the first article—Profitability.

Disclaimer: All data and analysis in this article are based on publicly available market information, independently compiled and compiled by LUCIDA, and are intended for academic and information sharing purposes only. The exchange rankings, performance differences, and related conclusions mentioned in this article do not constitute investment advice, nor do they represent our endorsement or biased evaluation of any specific exchange. Market conditions are dynamic and readers should make independent decisions based on their own judgment and risk tolerance. LUCIDA is not responsible for any investment actions or consequences based on the contents of this article.

Zero, Statistical Method and Caliber Description (Must Read)

To make the comparison fair and objective, LUCIDA has set a unified statistical standard:

Time Slices (Backdrops): In order to reduce the disturbance caused by differences in market stages, LUCIDA divides the core rising period of the Crypto bull market in the past two years into three segments:

• Backdrop1: 2023–01–01 ~ 2023–05–06

• Backdrop2: 2023–10–01 ~ 2024–04–01

• Backdrop3: 2024–09–01 ~ The reason for this is that only when BTC rises can altcoins potentially achieve greater excess returns. I. Profitability Regarding profitability, LUCIDA focuses not only on whether a currency can rise, but also on how much it can rise. Therefore, LUCIDA will evaluate each exchange's ability to create wealth from five aspects.

  1. Statistics of the range of increase

  2. The proportion of coins whose absolute returns outperformed BTC on different CEXs

  3. The proportion of coins whose increase exceeded 500% on different CEXs to the total number of coins listed on the exchange

  4. Logarithmic average return rate and descriptive statistics of all listed coins on different CEXs

  5. Probability density of all listed coins on different CEXs

  Let’s start with “1. Statistics of the range of increase”

  1. Statistics of the range of increase

  For fair comparison, LUCIDA divides the market trends of the past two years into three stages (called Backdrop 1, 2, and 3). Backdrop 1 is The period for Backdrop2 is from January 1, 2023, to May 6, 2023; Backdrop2 is from October 1, 2023, to April 1, 2024; and Backdrop3 is from September 1, 2024, to July 23, 2025. Each phase represents a core period of BTC's growth. The principle is that only when BTC rises can altcoins have the opportunity to achieve greater excess returns.

  For each phase, LUCIDA calculated the yields of all coins on various exchanges. The following formula is used to calculate the yield of a single currency:

  

  Where Ri represents the yield of the i-th currency within the interval; Phigh and Plow represent the highest and lowest prices, respectively, after processing (time series have order issues and require date calibration).

  Then compare: Which exchanges have seen the most significant price increases? Which exchanges have the most "dark horse coins"? The results are intuitive: there are significant differences between different exchanges. 2. The proportion of coins whose absolute returns outperformed BTC on different CEXs LUCIDA uses the following formula to calculate this evaluation indicator:

  

  Wherein, NRi>RBTC represents the number of cryptocurrencies whose increase exceeds BTC on the exchange, and Ncex represents the total number of cryptocurrencies listed on the exchange.

  Backdrop 1 data example:

  • Binance: 93/323 (28.79%)

  • OKX: 66/216 (30.7%)

  • Bitget: 98/313 (31.31%)

  • Gate: 223/1163 (19.1%)

  • MEXC: 123/537 (22.9%)

  • Bybit: 40/188 (21.28%)

  • KuCoin: 79/427 (18.5%)

  Phase performance ranking:

  • Backdrop 1: Bitget > OKX > Binance > MEXC > Bybit > Gate > KuCoin

  • Backdrop 2: OKX > Binance > Bybit > Bitget > KuCoin > MEXC > Gate

  • Backdrop 3: MEXC > Bybit > KuCoin > Gate > Binance > Bitget > OKX

  

  Among them, NRi>500% represents the number of cryptocurrencies listed on the exchange with an increase of more than 500%, and Ncex represents the total number of cryptocurrencies listed on the exchange.

  Through calculation, the results are shown in the following table:

  

  Performance ranking by stage:

  • Backdrop 1: MEXC > Gate > OKX > Bitget > KuCoin > Binance > Bybit

  • Backdrop 2: OKX > Bybit > Bitget > KuCoin > Binance > Gate > MEXC

  • Backdrop 3: MEXC > KuCoin > Bybit > Gate > Bitget > Binance > OKX

  Summary:

  If you're a risk-taker seeking extreme returns and aren't afraid of high risk, exchanges like MEXC, Gate, and KuCoin, which utilize a "sea of ​​coins" strategy (i.e., listing a large number of high-yield, high-risk coins), may offer more opportunities for your assets to explode.

  4. Logarithmic Average Return and Descriptive Statistics of All Listed Coins on Different CEXs

  The average return is a good indicator for evaluating the return performance of coins on an exchange from a macro perspective. To avoid the asymmetry of conventional returns (theoretically, there's no upper limit to growth, but a lower limit to decline), LUCIDA uses logarithmic returns to describe the distribution of coins. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

  

  ln(Ri) represents the logarithmic return of a single currency on the exchange in a certain backdrop, and Ncex represents the total number of currencies listed on the exchange.

  The following figure shows the statistical results:

  

  From the perspective of the logarithmic average return, the performance differences between exchanges are further clarified:

  • "High Upper Limit Potential": The logarithmic return distribution of the currencies on KUCOIN, Gate, and MEXC shows significant "upper limit potential", which means that the currencies on these exchanges are more likely to experience "breakthrough increases."

  • "Mean and Median Double Excellence": Bybit and MEXC have relatively better performance in terms of the mean and median of logarithmic return, indicating that the overall return level of the currencies on their platforms is more prominent and the distribution is more balanced.

  Summary: Overall, the returns and risks of cryptocurrency trading are highly tied to each other, and the market environment is a key variable. Judging from more scientific indicators such as logarithmic return, the profitability of different exchanges is clearly differentiated. Investors need to choose prudently based on their own risk preferences and market judgment. 5. Probability Density of All Listed Tokens on Different CEXs To assess returns at a more macro level, LUCIDA uses the logarithmic mean return rate. To reveal more microscopic distribution characteristics, LUCIDA plots the probability density distribution of the return rates of tokens on each exchange (using Backdrop 1 as an example).

  

  BINANCE

  

  OKX

  

  Bitget

  

  Gate

  

Summary of profitability: This is not about choosing a platform, but choosing a battlefield

The data clearly reveals a core fact: there is no absolute "better" among exchanges, but there is a fundamental "strategy differentiation". Choosing an exchange is essentially choosing your profit model and risk exposure.

(1) Binance & OKX: Mainstream "Beta" and Selected "Alpha"

• Core value: stable excess returns. They are a microcosm of the mainstream market, providing the highest quality "Beta" (market average return). Here, the probability of you choosing a currency that outperforms Bitcoin is the highest.

• Strategic positioning: "core holdings" and "main battlefield" of wealth. It is suitable to allocate most of the funds here for medium and long-term investment. Their new listing strategies tend to be conservative, but the project quality screening is more stringent, which is equivalent to doing the first round of risk control for you. Making money here depends more on your judgment of the project fundamentals and market trends, rather than luck.

• Summary: If you want to steadily beat the market, this is the best starting point. They are the battlefield prepared for "investors".

(2) MEXC, Gate, KuCoin: Hunting Grounds for High-Risk "Alpha"

• Core Value: Extreme Profit Imagination Space. They are practitioners of the "Coin Sea Tactics", maximizing the soil for breeding "hundred-fold mythical coins" by listing a large number of various projects (especially early-stage and niche projects).

• Strategic Positioning: "Satellite Position" and "Opportunity Window" of Wealth. It is suitable to use a small amount of capital to conduct high-risk, high-odds speculation here. Their advantage lies not in the win rate, but in the odds. Data shows that they have the most significant "positive return long tail", that is, the probability of capturing extreme rising assets is the highest. Insight: But you must accept the price: extremely high volatility and deeper "traps" (Gate's negative return long tail is a clear example). Making money here is more like panning for gold in the sand, requiring strong information screening capabilities and the discipline of quick stop-loss. They are battlefields prepared for "adventurers" and "hunters". (3) Strategic Enlightenment: Account Configuration with Both Offensive and Defensive Capabilities Don't choose one or the other, but combine configurations. A savvy investor should not stick to just one exchange. Main Account (Binance/OKX): Use this to deploy your core positions and capture major market trends and steady growth. Scout Account (MEXC/KuCoin/Gate): Use this to scan the market's cutting-edge hot spots and meme coins with a small amount of capital, seeking outsized returns while isolating risk from your main account. Exchange performance rotates: Data shows that no exchange consistently leads in all phases. The rise of MEXC and KuCoin in Backdrop 3 reminds us that market trends and capital preferences shift during different stages of a bull market. The smart approach is to dynamically adjust your deployment across different battlefields based on market sentiment. The answer is no longer "Which exchange is more profitable?" but rather "What role should each exchange play in your portfolio?" Use Binance/OKX to maintain your lower limit, and use MEXC/KuCoin to impact your upper limit. This is the most profound profit strategy that can be derived from the data.