Author: Tokenomia.pro; Compiler: Leia, TEDAO
Introduction
< p style="text-align: left;">If you have been in the crypto space for long, you will know that discovering new token distribution models is the key to starting a new cycle. In the rapidly evolving crypto market, significant changes are taking place in the way tokens are designed, issued, and managed. Understanding the practices employed in Web3 and appropriately tailoring these elements to your project needs is critical to project success.Recently,a popular strategy is to use a combination of high fully diluted valuation (FDV) and low-float token models. Initially, this approach looked very promising,but time has proven that this approach is not suitable for every project.
In this article, we will discuss:
Historical background of token distribution trends
Flaws of the current high FDV, low circulation token model
Key players
Market Analysis
The rise of meme coins< /p>
Important mechanism of token distribution
Better Token Design Strategies
The Web3 market is a dynamic environment full of innovative solutions program, each project can find the answer to its specific needs.
Trends in Web3 are constantly changing, so there is no need to follow fixed trends. It is best to tailor key aspects such as the token distribution strategy to the project’s specific needs and expectations.
Meme coins are a great example of projects where community engagement and marketing is the main factor, not the token economics of the project.
Token distribution is affected by a variety of factors and project operating background. A good practice is to plan the mechanism ahead of time so that the reserve pool can be adjusted accordingly as needed.
When planning a token economy and token distribution strategy, it is worth implementing mechanisms to drive community Build and reduce selling pressure.
To better understand the complex terminology of Web3, it's helpful to know some specific definitions.
Fully diluted valuation (FDV): FDV represents the value of all tokens assuming every possible token is in circulation total value. In crypto markets, it shows a project’s potential market value and is often used to attract investment. The price of traditional tokens is often based on expectations of future revenue, the value generated by the project, and other fundamental metrics.
Float: Float refers to the number of tokens that are publicly available and actively traded in the market. Circulation volume can affect a token’s liquidity and price volatility.
Low circulation: Low circulation means that only a small portion of the token is available in the market. This creates artificial scarcity, driving up demand and price, making the token appear more valuable, but this can lead to greater price volatility.
In token distribution and designing a token economy, it is also important to understand the following concepts:
Marketcap:
Definition: The total value of the circulating supply of a cryptocurrency (token).
Calculation: Market capitalization = current price of the token × total number of tokens in circulation.
Example: If a project has 1,000,000 tokens circulating in the market, each token If the price is $10, then its market value will be $10,000,000.
Initial market capitalization:
Definition: The market capitalization of a cryptocurrency (token) at the time of its first launch or issuance.
Importance: This value provides an initial valuation of the project at launch and can reflect Investor sentiment and initial liquidity.
Vesting:
Definition: Tokens are gradually released over a set period of time, rather than all at once .
Purpose: To ensure the long-term commitment of team members and reduce the large-scale impact that may affect the token price Sell-off risk.
Example: A project may release 10% of tokens every month for 10 months .
Cliff :
Definition: The initial period in the vesting schedule during which no tokens are released . After the cliff period ends, tokens begin to be released according to the vesting schedule.
Purpose: Usually used to ensure that contributors or team members have at least Stay committed for a minimum period of time.
Example: A project may set a 6-month cliff period, after which tokens start to freed.
Locked Supply:
Definition: Tokens that are reserved and not used for transactions. These tokens are typically held or reserved by the project team for future use.
Purpose: To ensure that tokens are available for future development, partnerships, or to incentivize the team members and stakeholders.
Example: 50% of the total supply may be locked, with plans to gradually release it over the next few years freed.
Token Generation Event (TGE):
Definition: The event of creating and issuing new tokens. This is the moment when the token becomes available to investors for the first time.
Meaning: Marks the official issuance of the token, usually coinciding with the start of exchange trading consistent.
Example: A project may announce a TGE on a specific date, when investors can purchase and Trade new tokens.
Staking:
Definition: The process of locking a certain amount of cryptocurrency to support the operation of a blockchain network. In return, participants receive rewards.
Purpose: Help secure the network, verify transactions, and incentivize participants. It has a positive impact on the system as it reduces selling pressure.
Example: Staking ETH on the Ethereum 2.0 network to continuously receive rewards.
Holding:
Definition: Holding a cryptocurrency for an extended period of time, rather than trading it, in the expectation that its value will change Time increases.
Purpose: A common strategy among investors who believe in the long-term potential of cryptocurrencies.
Example: Buying Bitcoin and holding it for several years despite market fluctuations.
Airdrop:
Definition: The distribution of free tokens to individuals, usually as a promotional campaign or to reward early adopters and Community members.
Purpose: Increase awareness, encourage adoption, and reward loyal community members.
Example: A new project might be open to registered users or if certain conditions are met (such as holding a certain amount of another cryptocurrency) airdropped tokens to users.
Web3's rapid development is driven by continuous innovation and process improvement, which drives project creators to continuously optimize. Trends in the crypto space often overlap, but the history of token distribution models can be divided into three key phases.
First time A coin offering (ICO) is a popular method of raising capital in which new cryptocurrency projects sell a large portion of their initial token supply to early investors. ICO participants aim to profit from the appreciation of the native token through yield farming. This period saw a huge surge in ICOs, with projects raising billions of dollars quickly and efficiently.
However, the lack of regulation of ICOs has led to numerous scams and fraudulent projects, and many investors have suffered significant financial losses. Notable examples include Pincoin and iFan, two projects that collectively stole $660 million from approximately 32,000 investors in Vietnam. Another notorious scam, BitConnect, was revealed to be a Ponzi scheme that promised high returns through its lending program and $BCC, causing investors to suffer significant losses. In response, regulators such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began cracking down on ICOs, classifying many of them as unregistered securities offerings. This has resulted in many crypto projects facing increased scrutiny and legal challenges.
With regulatory crackdowns making ICOs no longer viable, projects began exploring alternative funding and distribution strategies. An emerging approach is to use a structured vesting approach combined with graded investment rounds. Instead of releasing all tokens at once, projects will implement various unlocking periods based on investor type.
Strategic investors and early backers may have different vesting schedules, with tokens gradually released. At the same time, the funding process itself became more structured. Different investors enter different investment rounds at different prices. Early investors may enter at a lower price in a seed round, while later investors may enter at a higher price in subsequent funding rounds.
This structured approach is designed to reduce the immediate risk of price crashes and "rug pulls." It provides a more sustainable ecosystem and stability for projects. Initially, this strategy is beneficial because it allows the project to build a more controllable growth trajectory.
Source:
https://cobie.substack.com/p/new-launches-part-1-private-capture
However, as this structured vesting strategy becomes the industry standard, the market is flooded with projects with high valuations. This has resulted in an inflationary market where many projects have unsustainable valuations from the start, making it more difficult for retail investors to extract value from new token offerings. The proliferation of high FDV and low flow models further exacerbates this problem. As a result, many coins have experienced increased volatility and underperformed over the long term.
This period highlights the need for a more innovative and transparent approach to the token distribution process and valuation.
As the industry evolves, projects realize they can leverage these vesting and tiered investment strategies to create Speculative opportunities. By setting a high FDV and only releasing a small portion of tokens in the early stages (low circulation), projects can artificially create scarcity and drive up prices. Initially, this approach was initially seen as a way to attract attention and investment without triggering the regulatory issues associated with ICOs.
However, over time, the Web3 market validated this strategy. It turns out that it affects two key aspects of the market:
1. Most of the profit potential in the token market is captured by private equity investors , they invest outside the chain. This excludes ordinary investors from early-stage trading. Many projects remain private for long periods of time, making it difficult for ordinary investors to obtain tokens at a fair price.
2. A large number of tokens are held by insiders who conduct over-the-counter (OTC) transactions. OTC is an alternative strategy for maintaining price stability as it helps avoid large sell-offs in the secondary market. This makes the price public investors see on the exchange different from the true price. When coins enter the market, this price difference can cause confusion. If the private sale price is much lower than the public sale price, the price may drop dramatically when the token is released as everyone tries to sell and drive the price down to its true value.
Source:
https://messari.io/report/mo-money-mo-problems
Because of their widespread adoption, Web3 projects attract a wide and diverse audience. Its inclusivity ensures access to all internet users. The market is composed of various types of Agents (Note: In Agent-based modeling, Agents are used to represent various types of market participants), and it is crucial to describe them correctly during the design phase. This allows for the development of incentive systems and helps protect the project from negative behavior by certain agents.
Groups particularly involved in token distribution:
Crypto Exchanges:These platforms benefit from high trading volumes and fees while promoting tokens to Create an impression of exclusivity and demand.
Project Team: They use high FDV and low flow strategies to attract initial investment and manage regulatory scrutiny , and ensure strong market valuations.
Influencers and market makers:Influencers drive demand and community engagement, while market makers Help maintain price stability and liquidity and prevent market collapse.
Regulators and policymakers: Regulatory actions, such as the SEC’s crackdown on ICOs, have prompted projects to Employ these strategies to comply with regulations and achieve their goals.
Historically, memecoins have been considered a joke asset, favored mainly by retail investors and even by most crypto funds. That said, they are also far beyond conventional speculative curves. Memecoins bring greater price volatility and higher risk, but also offer the opportunity to make quick profits. They were made available to a wide audience at a low price and quickly became popular. Meme coins often experience significant price fluctuations due to speculation and community actions. While they can generate huge profits in a short period of time, they are also prone to sudden drops in value.
Once the price shows signs of rising, everyone will immediately rush to the market and rush to buy meme coins. This significantly shortens the relevant period of broader market price increases before purchasing memecoins. In fact, the market has become very familiar with the game, undercutting much of the predictive behavior, making memecoins largely a highly speculative (and interesting) bet for the market to watch. DOGE, for example, surged from a market capitalization of less than a billion dollars to nearly $90 billion in less than a hundred days between late January and early May 2021.
Source:
https://messari.io/report/navigating-memecoin-mania
https://messari.io/report /memecoin-escape-velocity
https://messari.io/report/systematic-memecoin-investing
The prevalence of high FDV and low-circulation token models has waned, exposing significant challenges and poor performance results for many tokens. While memecoins are a notable exception with their unique market dynamics and instant liquidity, our analysis focuses on the performance and trends of utility and governance tokens. A thorough review of the data provided can provide a nuanced understanding of market dynamics.
Source:
https://x .com/tradetheflow_/status/1791382914447573218
As of May 17, 2024
Data shows that of the tokens recently listed on Binance, more than 80 % of newly issued tokens lose value after launch. For example, while tokens like ORDI and JTO saw significant gains (261.90% and 62.08%, respectively), most tokens including PORTAL and AEVO suffered steep declines (69.20% and 68.31%, respectively).
The market capitalization (MC) to fully diluted valuation (FDV) ratio of tokens listed in 2024 will be significantly lower than in the previous two years. This trend suggests that projects are becoming more cautious in their initial valuations, possibly due to the underperformance of high FDV tokens. This is consistent with the shortcomings of the high FDV low circulation model discussed in the article, and the need for a more sustainable token economy.
Source: Binance
Analysis of circulating supply versus locked supply shows that most recently launched tokens have high supply. This artificial scarcity can drive prices up initially. But once a token is unlocked, it often results in high volatility and unsustainable valuations.
Source: Binance, as of May 17, 2024
When designing a token economy, determining the token supply involves estimating the value of the company or project, as well as deciding the proportion of tokens to be sold to investors and their valuation . The overall token supply design consists of two key factors.
The first factor is to consider the financial interests of investors. Projects are able to raise funds by making them attractive to investors by providing favorable conditions to ensure they are willing to invest. Early investors expect to be rewarded upon launch, a reward for their money and trust. Allowing investors to use (stake or sell) the purchased tokens from the beginning of the project is critical. Releasing a portion of the token pool at the time of listing can help convey a message to investors and, in turn, influence financing negotiations. However, the initial supply should not be excessive, as high supply may prompt investors to sell quickly, causing prices to fall.
The second factor is the use of tokens for system needs and ecosystem development. In addition to token distribution, ensure there are sufficient reserves and token pools for ecosystem operations, rewards (such as staking or airdrops), and reserves for the normal operation of the project. These tokens are used internally to provide liquidity or the initial reward pool and should be allocated appropriately to minimize early selling pressure and meet initial system needs, including marketing. Proper token distribution assures investors that the team has a long-term plan for project development. The number of tokens allocated for system operations may exceed the circulating supply on the secondary market. This is a safe approach as ecosystem tokens typically do not increase supply immediately.
Once the token is on the market, such as a centralized exchange (CEX) with an order book or a decentralized exchange (DEX) with automated market making , it will affect the price of the token.
When designing token economics, many project founders often set static values in the early stages. However, tokenomics can also be designed dynamically to adapt to changes in system needs. These dynamic changes can affect the token pool and respond to the need to expand the system in a timely manner. One example is adjusting market capitalization as the system develops to avoid overly high initial valuations.
In addition to determining an appropriate initial token supply, other mechanisms that influence project launch should also be considered. In addition to designing a proper initial token distribution, incentives and mechanisms to reduce supply pressure should also be kept in mind. Planning ahead is crucial as it allows for greater flexibility in building distribution mechanisms and a more equitable and sustainable ecosystem.
Attribution
A key mechanism is attribution. Release tokens in stages over a period of time, reducing the possibility of a massive sell-off. Importantly, vesting reduces selling pressure and spreads it over time. When a large number of tokens are in the vesting stage and therefore not yet in circulation on the market, this may indicate limited supply and potentially higher value. Additionally, large releases may indicate a future decline in value due to a sudden increase in supply or a massive sell-off of the token.
Attribution has three main functions:
For founders,team assignments that set vesting periods demonstrate their long-term commitment. It can provide assurance to other stakeholders in the project and build their confidence in the quality of the project.
From an investor's perspective, it serves as a protection mechanism to prevent sudden fluctuations in the market, contributing to a greater stability.
For the community, vesting allows for a fairer distribution of tokens and more equitable and democratic conditions for participation. It can also serve as an incentive for community participation. Project creators can manipulate attribution by shortening their time frames as users complete tasks and reach certain milestones within the system. This type of attribution is called dynamic attribution or event-driven attribution. In this mechanism, users receive tokens after specific events or when the project reaches milestones. Scheduled events and subsequent attribution are part of a marketing strategy that, when executed correctly, can drive activity on a project. It can respond to price changes or minimize negative trends, having a significant impact on the liquidity and stability of the token market.
In contrast to dynamic vesting, classic vesting, also known as time-based or linear vesting, releases a certain amount of money at regular intervals (such as monthly or yearly) amount of tokens until all tokens are released. Currently, we are seeing a trend toward longer vesting periods, reflecting a more strategic and long-term mindset among project creators.
Source:
https://messari.io/report/analyzing-solana-s-growth
https://messari.io /report/airdrops
Airdrops
Special It is in the early stages of a project that finding and building a loyal community is crucial. This provides the basis for subsequent development and long-term loyalty to the project. One mechanism that has become very popular in Web3 recently and attracts participants significantly is airdrops.
An airdrop involves distributing tokens to the community to draw attention to the project and attract community interest. In the early stages of a project, they serve as part of a marketing campaign, often requiring users to meet certain conditions, such as joining a Telegram group, retweeting a post on Twitter, or playing a demo game in the GameFi realm. In later stages, it is beneficial to reward community members such as holders or stakers for actions that benefit project dynamics.
The emergence of airdrops is partly driven by laws and regulations as an alternative to initial coin offerings (ICOs) without being classified as illegal securities offerings. , distribute tokens to a large number of users.
The success of the airdrop is obvious. New projects in Web3 quickly gain visibility through this mechanism. New users are particularly attracted by airdrops from various new projects, which familiarizes them with the ecosystem and fosters long-term loyalty, contributing to its continued growth. A good example is Solana’s native token SOL, which has increased in value by 500% since the beginning of 2023. This period was primarily driven by decentralized finance (DeFi) airdrops and significant growth in application development on the network.
Airdrop strategy and its impact
The effect of airdrop is obvious , but project creators may still want to know which specific airdrop rules best suit their project’s needs. As always, the key is to tailor the rules to individual needs, depending on whether we want to incentivize a specific group in the community or the community as a whole, whether we prefer regular token distributions, or based on the development of the project and the dynamics of its value changes to operate them. However, there is some data that suggests some methods are better than others.
Targeted airdrops vs. broad distribution: Data shows that smaller, targeted airdrops to core users are better than large-scale The effect is better if it is widely distributed. Specific groups in the community are selected for rewards, and their participation can be interpreted as meeting certain criteria or stacking up. For example, small token distributions to core users (such as UNI and PYTH) show higher retention rates and lower volatility than wider distributions.
Airdrops targeting core users
Wide distribution of tokens may be costly , especially if the recipient tends to sell them quickly. Instead, it is more effective to focus on core users who contribute liquidity mining and usage to the project. Data shows that rewarding these core users leads to higher retention rates. Attempting to convert non-users via airdrops is unlikely to have a significant effect. By incentivizing the core community, it not only promotes stronger holder retention, but also stimulates buying momentum and drives up prices. Furthermore, motivational psychology confirms thatthe exclusivity of a reward enhances its perceived value because it is not available to everyone. SThis sense of exclusivity can increase the subjective evaluation of the reward.
Tend to small-scale airdrops
The size of airdrops has less impact on price and volatility, so it is preferable to keep airdrops small. Tokens play a key role in launching usage and liquidity as the project intends to continue development. Maintaining a larger reserve of tokens allows for future rewards to incentivize users and provide liquidity. Nevertheless, airdrops should still be substantial enough to effectively reward early-stage venture capital and inspire community participation.
Source:
https://followin.io/en/feed/10549481
Staking
Another mechanism worth considering is staking, which allows users to increase their capital, This inhibits the rapid sale of tokens and project abandonment. This mechanism, as well as the holding, is designed to reduce selling pressure after the project is launched.
Staking is a very positive mechanism in a project, as it allows users to generate passive income and increase their engagement time with the project. Therefore, stakers are usually motivated through other incentive mechanisms, such as participating in airdrop activities, or as a voting basis in certain decentralized autonomous organization projects.
When planning the token economy, it is worth noting that the staking reward pool is included in the ecosystem pool. A well-designed system should be self-sufficient, generating its own inflow and replenishing the staking reward pool.
Holding Behavior
Analysis of holder behavior shows that core users tend to hold or buy more, indicating stronger community support. In contrast, widely distributed tokens see higher sell-off rates, resulting in greater volatility and price drops.
Source: 6th man, as of May 2024 20th
Volatility Analysis
Large Tokens that are large and widely distributed exhibit the highest volatility. The average volatility of such tokens is significantly higher than tokens with small, core user allocations. This suggests that a more conservative and targeted allocation approach can lead to more stable market behavior.
Source: 6th man
Based on our data analysis, market With insights and extensive experience in the Web3 industry, we have identified several strategies that can significantly improve the sustainability and transparency of the current token economy. Here are our assumptions and recommendations:
Background pair Token economy is crucial:
The context of the project determines the appropriate planning of the token economy and its liquidity. Projects will vary based on the utility of the token. Background can include DeFi, GameFi, DAO, etc.
Sufficient initial circulating supply:
Ensure at least 20% of tokens are in circulation at listing , to prevent price manipulation and ensure accurate market valuations.
Balanced vesting schedule:
Implement partial vesting in token generation events (TGE) , and then further vest within 6-12 months. This approach supports ongoing participation and fair price discovery.
Transparent token distribution:
Provides information about the token distribution model, vesting schedule and Clear details of the token’s role in the ecosystem.
Automation and auditing processes:
Use open source and audited smart contracts for token operations , ensuring every step is secure and visible to stakeholders.
Plan incentive mechanism:
Incentive mechanisms, such as staking or airdrops, drive tokens The activities of holders in the project are an important part of the marketing strategy.
Effective token distribution methods:
Use token streaming to gradually Release, reduce volatility and align with project milestones and user engagement.
Verification:
Conduct simulation exercises before project launch to check the dynamics and price changes Economic cybersecurity for planning pools.
By adopting these strategies, projects can build a more sustainable and transparent ecosystem.
Building a well-structured token economic framework that seamlessly integrates with the project's philosophy and context can be a challenge for its creators. Many teams turn to replicating known solutions and traditional static strategies. If you want to know why this approach is doomed to fail in the long run, read the article Tokenomics Explained: Tokenomics Depends on the Context.
High FDV and low circulation Token trends have shown their limitations. In the dynamically changing Web3 landscape, new trends continue to replace old ones, and token distribution strategies are no exception. Among the many projects, some can find their "foothold" and be profitable, while others will fail and fall to the bottom. However, it is not advisable to blindly follow past successes. Proper planning of token economics and token distribution strategies should be based on a deep understanding of project needs, constraints, and expectations. These factors should guide the direction and mechanisms chosen. Being clear about the project’s context and success metrics, and aligning its token economy with them, is key to success. Rrather than sticking to hard-wired models, consider unique allocations and more dynamic solutions that can adapt to changes in the system and evolving needs.
Recognizing the three main needs of creators in token economic support, Tokenomia.pro and TokenOps comprehensively cover them:
Design Phase
Token Economic Development:
We assist in the design and development of robust token economic models that are aligned with the project’s specific needs and goals.
Economic mechanism design:
Our team specializes in creating content that drives user engagement, inspires desired behaviors, and Economic mechanisms for ecosystem growth.
Psychological portrait of Agents:
We conduct in-depth analysis to understand the perspectives of project stakeholders Psychological motivation and behavior to help optimize incentive structure and user experience.
Incentive mechanism:
We design and implement effective incentive mechanisms to enable token holding Participants are rewarded for their contributions, promoting long-term engagement and loyalty.
Full coverage:
Our consulting services provide comprehensive coverage at all stages of the project, ensuring Token economic strategy is aligned with project goals.
Verification phase
Mathematical specifications:
We provide mathematical modeling and specification services that provide a clear framework for understanding project dynamics.
Create a digital twin:
Using the cadCAD model in Python, we create a digital twin of the project , to simulate real-world scenarios and optimize the decision-making process.
Verified by simulation:
We perform simulations to verify assumptions and analyze system dynamics to Smart tweaks and optimizations.
Verify economic security:
Simulation helps identify the biggest threats to the flow of tokens in the system and Assess its economic security.
Simulation analysis and suggestions:
We examine simulation results for trends and report Provide practical advice.
If you are interested in evaluating the token economics of an existing project or validating your own project hypothesis, you You can use the token economic simulation tool-TPRO Network[https://tpro.network/]. It allows you to simulate changes in price dynamics, token supply, the number of tokens bought and sold, and the behavior of various Agents in primary and secondary markets. This tool enables you to observe how projects perform under specific demand and sales conditions.
Observe and respond:
Many sustainable tokens Economic needs are met by TokenOps, a platform dedicated to token operations and lifecycle management. TokenOps helps streamline the token creation process, providing transparent and balanced token distribution, real-time analytics, and tools to effectively manage vesting schedules. TokenOps solves key problems identified in the current market:
Transparency of token distribution:
TokenOps provides detailed reporting and tracking tools to enhance transparency and build investor trust. By providing a clear view of token allocation and distribution, projects can ensure accountability and promote investor confidence. Their platform uses open source and fully auditable smart contracts, ensuring every step is secure and visible to stakeholders.
Balanced vesting schedule:
TokenOps provides the possibility to build flexible and customized vesting schedules nature, balancing early investor rewards and long-term project sustainability. This helps prevent large-scale sudden unlocks that could disrupt the market.
Innovative distribution methods:
TokenOps supports innovative token distribution methods, including token Streaming and dynamic attribution. These methods help maintain price stability by gradually releasing tokens in line with project milestones and user participation.
Substantial initial circulating supply:
TokenOps assists projects in managing their initial circulating supply to Ensure proper price discovery. Ensuring adequate token circulation from the outset helps prevent price manipulation and ensures more accurate market valuations.
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