Did the hype come true? A brief recap of the Qubic double-spend attack

Author: 0xTodd Source: X, @0x_Todd The recent so-called "51% attack" launched by Qubic on Monero (XMR) was actually a carefully orchestrated psychological warfare and propaganda ploy, rather than a true attack on hashrate dominance. A community review revealed that: Qubic's actual hashrate at the time of the attack was only approximately 35%, not the claimed 51%. However, through "selfish mining," Qubic mined six consecutive blocks, temporarily forming the longest chain, potentially invalidating the blocks of honest miners and creating the theoretical conditions for a double-spend attack. This attack was essentially a deterrent: by demonstrating potential attack capabilities, it induced miners to join the Qubic mining pool for economic reasons, causing its hashrate to actually exceed 50% after the attack, creating a counter-productive effect. Qubic didn't actually perform double-spending (for example, exchanges require 10 confirmations for deposits), and the attack relied on probability and temporary hashrate leasing, primarily focusing on psychological pressure and marketing propaganda. The project has announced that Dogecoin will be its next target, but analysts believe that it uses ASIC mining rigs, making it more difficult to attack. Their current statements may still be part of a psychological warfare operation. The entire incident is being viewed as a classic example of "fake it till you make it," highlighting the real influence that combining public opinion manipulation with displays of hashrate can have in the crypto space. Some follow-up comments: This is truly a psychological warfare operation. Since last week's announcement of a 51% attack on $XMR by Qubic, the community has come to several conclusions:

1. Qubic did not actually possess 51% of the hash rate during the alleged 51% attack; it only briefly reached around 35%.

2. Qubic produced six consecutive XMR blocks, suggesting a case of selfish mining.

Selfish mining involves mining blocks but holding them back until all six are released simultaneously to become the longest chain. This invalidates the five blocks (the second-longest chain) held by honest miners, enabling double spending.

PS: My soul painter made a rough sketch to make it look good.

In fact, even if I only have 1% of the computing power, I can theoretically mine 6 blocks in a row, but the probability is too small. With 35% computing power, the probability is quite high. I did some quick math. This is just natural probability. Based on Monero's 1440 blocks per day, with 35% hashrate, the attack is mathematically expected to succeed 2.6 times per day. This doesn't even factor in the bonus from selfish mining; the attack would be even higher if that were included. Otherwise, Qubic wouldn't have been willing to spend the money to rent hashrate to reach 6 blocks in such a short period of time. Why is this model considered selfish? It's because, to ensure the success rate, blocks are often held back without transactions, resulting in many empty blocks and wasted block space. Back to the point, Qubic doesn't double-spend. Many exchanges require 10 block confirmations for XMR deposits, so it certainly doesn't have the incentive to actually attack. So, you can understand why Qubic doesn't have 51% of the hashrate, nor has it attempted a 51% attack. It simply flexed its muscles briefly, then released a promotional release claiming to have completed a 51% attack. But why is it considered psychological warfare? After the incident, many miners actually surrendered and joined the Qubic mining pool, resulting in Qubic's hashrate actually exceeding 50% as of yesterday. So this isn't a battle of hashrate, but a psychological one. This is a form of intimidation for miners—if you don't join Qubic's mining pool, your future blocks could be invalidated, impacting your returns. If you join, you'll be aiding and abetting the evil, incurring losses and potentially even engaging in dual mining. Not all miners are resolute; many still consider financial considerations. Immediately afterwards, they officially announced that their next target would be Dogecoin. However, I suspect that Dogecoin, based on Litecoin mining hardware, uses ASICs, so this might not be that simple. However, they are masters of psychological warfare. So this official announcement itself could be a new form of psychological warfare. It's astonishing! This is called "Fake it till you make it." It's difficult to translate, but the literal translation is: "Start by pretending something until it becomes real."