Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events of the blockchain industry this week.
Headlines
▌The U.S. SEC has again postponed its decision on spot Ethereum ETF options
According to a document dated October 11, the U.S. SEC has again postponed its decision on spot Ethereum ETF options. The document stated that the U.S. SEC postponed its decision on a proposed rule change that would allow the Cboe exchange to list options related to several popular spot Ethereum ETFs, and the deadline for the agency's ruling has been postponed from October 19 to December 3. Bloomberg Industry Research analyst James Seyffart said that BTC ETF options are likely to be launched in the United States in the first quarter of 2025.
▌FTX 2.0 restart rumors fall through, investors lack interest
Although there were rumors that FTX 2.0 might be restarted, the plan was eventually ruled out. FTX CEO John J. Ray III said in June 2022 that the company had begun soliciting parties interested in restarting the FTX.com exchange and possibly rebranding it. However, FTX lawyer Andrew Dietderich told the judge at a hearing in January 2024 that he had failed to find investors willing to invest, and the restart plan was shelved.
▌OpenAI expects its losses to reach $14 billion in 2026
According to The Information, OpenAI burned $340 million in the first half of 2024. OpenAI's forecast shows that the company will not be profitable until 2029, when its revenue will reach $100 billion. Before reaching that point, the company could lose as much as $14 billion by 2026, almost three times its expected losses this year, with total losses expected to reach $44 billion from 2023 to 2028, according to an analysis of data contained in OpenAI's financial filings. This estimate does not include stock compensation, which is one of OpenAI's largest expenses, although it is not paid in cash.
▌Institution: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by only another 25bp this year
Citadel Securities said that the strong US economy and stubborn inflation will lead the Fed to cut interest rates only once more in 2024. "I'm going to go out on a limb and say we're only going to end up seeing 25 basis points of rate cuts for the rest of the year," Michael de Pass, global head of rates trading at Citadel Securities, said in an interview. The market "is still implying 50 basis points of rate cuts this year. When we look at it, that's a little too high, both in terms of the strength of the underlying economy and the stickiness of inflation." Swap traders have lowered their expectations for further Fed rate cuts after strong U.S. job creation in September, now expecting about 47 basis points of cuts by the end of 2024. Before the jobs report, they expected about 75 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. Michael de Pass said the adjustment makes sense but is still too aggressive.
▌Mango Labs sues DAO members for allegedly embezzling $10 million of internal funds
Mango Labs has filed a lawsuit against John Kramer and Maximilian Schneider, accusing them of misappropriating $10 million from the Mango decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). John Kramer and Maximilian Schneider held fiduciary positions in the DAO and are accused of conspiring to profit from the DAO’s MNGO governance tokens while purchasing the DAO’s MNGO governance tokens held by the bankrupt FTX on behalf of the DAO. The lawsuit alleges breach of fiduciary duty, violation of Puerto Rico’s civil code for damages, fraud/misrepresentation, and unjust enrichment, and the group seeks monetary damages, “punitive and exemplary damages,” and restitution and forfeiture of improperly obtained funds, including interest and fees.
Policy
▌U.S. SEC warns of risk of cryptocurrency and emerging technology investment scams
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sounded the alarm on the growing risk of cryptocurrency and other investment scams during World Investor Week 2024. Investors are struggling to find reliable advice amid the rising influence of artificial intelligence, social media, and aggressive financial marketing. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is focusing on scams involving cryptocurrencies, financial inducements and "relationship" scams, and warned that the hype around emerging technologies could mislead unsuspecting individuals.
▌If Trump wins the election, Robinhood General Counsel may become the new U.S. SEC Chairman
Dan Gallagher, general counsel of Robinhood, is seen as a possible nominee for the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) if Trump is successfully re-elected. However, the SEC is currently considering a lawsuit against Robinhood's growing cryptocurrency business, alleging that it may not be registered as a broker and clearing agency in the crypto market. Gallagher objected to this, calling the case "meaningless." He pointed out that Robinhood's crypto trading volume is far less than other platforms and does not offer crypto lending or staking products. If elected, Gallagher may face a controversial confirmation process because Democrats have long been cautious about industry officials serving as federal regulators.
▌The U.S. SEC, FBI and DOJ jointly filed a lawsuit against four fraudulent crypto companies
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) jointly filed a lawsuit against four crypto companies suspected of fraud and market manipulation on October 9, including Gotbit Consulting, ZM Quant Investment and CLS Global. The charges involved self-trading market manipulation and multiple crimes related to cryptocurrencies Saitama, Robo Inu and NexFundAI. A total of nine individuals were indicted, and some defendants agreed to separate settlements. The investigation showed that Gotbit and its marketing director created market interest for these crypto projects through false transactions. The relevant personnel involved in this case are distributed in multiple countries, including the United States, Russia and India, reflecting the complexity and breadth of the case.
▌U.S. prosecutors charge four companies and 14 individuals with alleged manipulation and fraud in the cryptocurrency market
Four cryptocurrency companies and 14 individuals were charged in the first criminal prosecution of a financial services company for manipulating the cryptocurrency market and false trading, U.S. prosecutors said on Wednesday.
Boston federal prosecutors have filed lawsuits against companies such as Gotbit, ZM Quant, CLS Global and MyTrade, as well as their leaders and employees, and arrested several overseas suspects, five of whom have agreed to plead guilty or have already pleaded guilty.
▌Tezos node operator sues the U.S. IRS again, demanding that staking rewards be treated as property rather than income
Tezos node operator Josh Jarrett sued the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) again, demanding that staking rewards be treated as property rather than income. Jarrett previously filed a lawsuit in 2021 against the 2019 tax bill, but the case was dismissed in 2024 as "meaningless." In this lawsuit, Jarrett and his wife seek a tax refund for 13,000 Tezos tokens received in 2020, and ask the court to prohibit the IRS from treating staking rewards as income. Jarrett believes that the tokens should be taxed when they are sold, not when they are received. Organizations such as Coin Center support this lawsuit, arguing that current policies will inhibit participation in decentralized networks.
Blockchain Applications
▌USDA Approves Blockchain-Based Certification System
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) approved CattleProof's "Verified" as a blockchain-based process verification program (PVP). The system records cattle information through a decentralized digital ledger, including the data and status of electronic identification tags. CattleProof also provides "Born in the USA" certification and digital certificates for individual cattle, a move that shows USDA's recognition of blockchain technology in the agricultural field.
▌ZK rollup Scroll integrates Chainlink's CCIP to enable cross-chain token transfer and interoperability
ZK rollup Scroll has integrated Chainlink's cross-chain interoperability protocol (CCIP). Native access to CCIP will enable developers to build secure and novel decentralized applications on Scroll while expanding the multi-chain ecosystem. Chainlink's CCIP provides developers with the tools to build secure applications that support token transfers, messaging, and action initiation across multiple blockchains. The protocol's programmable token transfer capabilities allow smart contracts to send tokens across different chains in a single transaction, including specific instructions for processing tokens upon arrival.
▌Ubisoft to launch Arbitrum-based NFT collection on Magic Eden
Ubisoft will launch the Arbitrum-based "Niji Warrior ID Cards" NFT collection on the Magic Eden market for its upcoming multiplayer shooter Captain Laserhawk: The G.A.M.E. NFTs will reflect player activity and provide game governance features.
▌Franklin Templeton Expands On-Chain Money Market Fund to Aptos Network
Aptos has now become the latest network where investors can trade shares of Franklin Templeton OnChain U.S. Government Money Market Fund (FOBXX). The fund is reportedly the second largest tokenized fund on the market with a market value of $435 million and is currently available on Arbitrum, Stellar, Polygon and Avalanche, as well as Ethereum.
▌Indonesia Post Launches NFT Stamp
Indonesia Post issued an announcement on its official Instagram page, announcing the issuance of its first NFT stamp, featuring the "Cenderawasih" (Bird of Paradise). According to the postal service, the NFT stamp will be available in both physical and NFT versions. The series of stamps will also be issued in the form of a booklet.
Cryptocurrency
▌JP Morgan: Crypto markets will be affected by multiple key factors in the coming months
JP Morgan analysts pointed out that the crypto market will be affected by multiple key factors in the coming months, including seasonal "Uptober" trends, the Fed's rate cuts, and Ethereum's "Pectra" upgrade. They mentioned that historical data shows that more than 70% of Bitcoin returns in "Uptober" months are positive, which may have a positive impact on market behavior. Although the Fed's rate cuts have not yet significantly boosted the crypto market, analysts believe that the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic factors remains high and requires clearer catalysts to achieve sustained growth. In addition, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options may also deepen market liquidity and attract more investors.
▌More than 87% of new DEX tokens issued so far this year are based on the Solana blockchain
According to data from The Block, as of September 30 this year, Solana accounted for 96,010 of the 110,180 new tokens issued on all tracking chains, accounting for more than 87% of all new tokens appearing on DEX.
The number of new tokens on the Solana blockchain soared from near zero at the beginning of 2024 to more than 100,000 per month in the middle of the year. Although Solana is in the lead, Base has also performed well. Since April, the two chains have accounted for more than 80% of new token issuance.
▌The Trump family's World Liberty Financial formally proposed to launch on the Aave Ethereum mainnet
World Liberty Financial (WLF) proposed to launch on the Ethereum mainnet using Aave V3 on Wednesday, allowing users to borrow assets such as ETH, WBTC, USDC and USDT. The project is backed by the Trump family and aims to provide a secure lending platform. WLF plans to allocate 20% of the protocol interest to the Aave ecosystem reserve and will expand to the Scroll Ethereum second-layer network after successful integration. In addition, WLF will sell non-transferable governance tokens to qualified investors, with 63% for public sales. Despite facing doubts, analysts believe the project may attract more users to decentralized finance.
▌Trump family project WLFI: Public sale will be open to whitelisted users on October 15
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a Trump family project, posted on the X platform that "the public sale will begin on October 15 and will be open to all those who qualify through the whitelist."
▌Analysis: The macro factors affecting the performance of cryptocurrencies are shifting from monetary policy to the US election
Golden Finance reported that Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said, "Despite Bitcoin's sluggish price action this week, market sentiment has remained largely unchanged, as evidenced by the stability of perpetual contract funding rates and the number of open contracts over the past week." Coinbase analysts pointed out that the macro factors affecting the performance of cryptocurrencies are shifting from monetary policy to the results of the US election. Despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for rate cuts remain roughly stable.
▌FOX reporter: Ripple founder donated $1 million in XRP to Harris PAC
Golden Finance reported that FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett posted on social media, "Ripple founder Chris Larsen has made the first recorded cryptocurrency donation to Kamala Harris. According to new U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, Larsen donated $1 million in XRP to Future Forward USA, one of the main super PACs supporting Harris."
Important economic developments
▌Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic: The labor market has slowed down, but it does not appear weak or weak
Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic said the labor market has slowed down, but it does not appear weak or weak; the economy is close to the Fed's target and "is getting closer"; the inflation rate is still well above 2%; the risk of an overly strong economy may hinder the readjustment of policy; continue to focus on inflation targets while also paying attention to job market conditions.
▌The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in November is 86.7%, and the probability of not cutting interest rates is 13.3%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 86.7%, and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 13.3%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 78.1%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 10.1%; the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.
▌Fed Collins: US inflation rate is expected to fall to 2% against the backdrop of a healthy job market
Fed Collins said that he is increasingly confident that the inflation rate will return to 2% in a timely manner; the US inflation rate is expected to fall to 2% against the backdrop of a healthy job market; current data show that the US job market is generally healthy; in terms of interest rate cuts, a cautious, data-based approach is appropriate; it is necessary to focus on maintaining the good condition of the US economy; there is a risk that the US economy will fall beyond the necessary level.
▌The U.S. one-year credit default swap rose to 48 basis points, the highest level since November 2023
Golden Finance reported that S&P Global Market Intelligence data showed that the U.S. one-year credit default swap rose to 48 basis points, the highest level since November 2023.
▌Fed Logan: The U.S. economy remains strong and stable
Golden Finance reported that Fed Logan said that recent inflation data is "very welcome"; policy restrictions can also cool inflation; the U.S. economy remains strong and stable; it is of great significance to gradually adjust policies towards a neutral interest rate; the banking industry must continue to diversify its financing channels; the Federal Reserve's discount window is one of the important sources of bank financing.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment concept and be sure to improve risk awareness.
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