Ether (ETH) recently rallied by 17%, bouncing back from a dip to $2,115 and nearing $2,470 amid easing global tensions following news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This brief geopolitical calm also helped push oil prices lower.
Yet, even with this price jump, institutional traders remain cautious. There’s little evidence in the futures or options markets to suggest a shift toward aggressive bullish positions.
Futures contracts for ETH—normally priced higher than spot due to settlement delays—are only showing a 3% annualized premium, down from the typical 5–10% range. That drop signals weak demand for long positions with leverage and continues a trend seen since mid-June, when ETH failed to hold levels above $2,700.
Meanwhile, Monday brought $101 million in inflows to U.S.-based Ether ETFs, a significant reversal from the previous Friday’s $11 million outflow. Still, this influx hasn't been enough to flip broader market sentiment. Even a 10% rally to $2,660 and stronger ETF interest haven’t encouraged traders to take on more bullish risk.
ETH’s market cap currently sits near $293 billion, yet monthly network fees remain modest at around $41 million. This disconnect raises eyebrows among investors, particularly when assessing the sustainability of staking yields and the broader economic model of Ethereum.
Ethereum leads in total value locked (TVL), with $66 billion across its protocols, but it only outpaces Solana’s fee revenue by $8 million. Tron, on the other hand, generates $56 million in monthly fees—more than Ethereum—despite having less than $5 billion in TVL.
Options data tells a similar story of market neutrality. The 30-day put/call skew metric, which tracks demand for protective puts versus calls, sits at +2%—comfortably neutral. While there was a brief moment of bearish sentiment on Sunday, the market hasn't dipped into strong downside protection mode since mid-June.
“Liquidity has returned in pockets, but it’s not flowing with conviction into ETH yet, without a strong macro tailwind or clearer institutional signals, we’re seeing cautious rotation rather than committed capital."
Vincent Liu, CIO, Kronos Research
For Ether to re-enter a convincing uptrend, traders likely want to see ETH hold above $2,800 for a sustained period, something it hasn’t done since early in the year.
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