Galaxy: Bitcoin has entered a new "mature" stage.

Author: Galaxy; Translator: Jinse Finance

Bitcoin prices fell below $100,000 for the first time since June.

Last week, the cryptocurrency market suffered a sharp decline as stock markets corrected and macroeconomic pressures intensified. Galaxy Research lowered its year-end price target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000, believing that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of "maturity," characterized by institutional investors gradually absorbing funds, increased passive capital flows, and reduced volatility.

Global risk appetite also fluctuated last week. US stocks fell as reports of layoffs and hiring freezes exacerbated concerns about an economic slowdown, with the S&P 500 down 1.1% and the Nasdaq down 1.9%.

Galaxy's view:

The cryptocurrency market suffered a major blow last week, with Bitcoin failing to hold the key psychological level of $100,000, while other cryptocurrencies performed even worse.

Of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, over 70 have seen their prices fall by more than 50% from their all-time highs. Whale selling has been a headwind for Bitcoin this year, but the collapse of 10/11 leveraged trading may have been the final straw. This event led to the bankruptcy of numerous market makers and funds and caused a significant shrinkage in the global order book. Positive catalysts for Bitcoin include the expansion of ETF distribution channels and the influx of traditional wealth management channels. Morgan Stanley advisors can finally recommend initial Bitcoin allocations to investors, and three of the four largest custodian banks have announced plans to launch Bitcoin services. Furthermore, whale distribution will eventually end—early investors will have a limited number of Bitcoins to sell, while theoretical demand is unlimited. We remain bullish on Bitcoin; frankly, this is a sign of Bitcoin's growth. The "maturity era" may have ended the illusion of "100x growth in a month," but it has also eliminated its fragility. ETFs are now absorbing the older generation of Bitcoin supply, long-term whales are running out of coins, and major banks that once scoffed at Bitcoin are now quietly setting up cryptocurrency trading departments over the weekend. Speculators chasing the hype have moved to AI stocks; and real adults are accumulating what is currently the only remaining digitally scarce asset. You can call it boring—but it is precisely this boring, institutionalized, and policy-sensitive nature of Bitcoin that will eventually make its way into global reserve portfolios.