Gemini obtains contract market license, exchanges ignite battle for prediction market dominance.

Deng Tong, Jinse Finance

On December 10, 2025, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission officially granted Gemini Exchange a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, allowing it to launch a prediction market platform called Gemini Titan, initially offering binary event contracts (yes/no questions). Gemini also stated that it may expand to derivatives such as crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts regulated by the CFTC in the future.

I. Gemini's Move Towards Prediction Markets

Gemini first applied for a DCM license on March 10, 2020. After more than five years, Gemini finally obtained the license.

Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss stated, “Today’s approval marks the successful completion of a five-year licensing process and opens a new chapter for Gemini. We thank President Trump for ending the Biden administration’s crackdown on cryptocurrencies, and we thank Acting Chair Ms. Pham for her hard work and dedication in helping to realize President Trump’s vision of making the U.S. the world’s cryptocurrency capital. Ms. Pham’s positioning of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a regulator that supports business and innovation will put the U.S. at the forefront of these emerging and dynamic markets. It’s refreshing and inspiring to have a president who supports cryptocurrencies, innovation, and America, and a financial regulator who supports America.” Winklevoss believes, “The potential of prediction markets may be as large as, or even larger than, traditional capital markets.” Gemini Titan will enter the prediction market space, offering event contracts presented in the form of simple “yes” or “no” questions. Soon, U.S. Gemini clients will be able to participate in prediction market trading event contracts using US dollars in their accounts through the Gemini web interface. The ability to trade event contracts via the Gemini mobile application will also be available soon. In the future, Gemini Titan will explore expanding its derivatives offerings to US clients, including cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts. Perpetual contracts are the most widely traded derivatives contracts in the cryptocurrency industry, having achieved tremendous success and market acceptance in Asia and other non-US regions over the past decade. Gemini Titan looks forward to bringing these innovative and highly liquid contracts to the US market. Prediction markets leverage collective intelligence and market forces to more accurately predict the future. They reward market participants for providing genuine insights and help them better prepare for the future by aggregating and disseminating more accurate information. Entering this emerging and booming field is another step by Gemini in building a one-stop financial super app for its clients. II. What efforts has Gemini made for this license?

1. Settlement with the CFTC

In 2022, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against Gemini in Manhattan federal court, accusing Gemini of making “false and misleading statements” to regulators in 2017 regarding its ability to prevent Bitcoin price manipulation in order to promote the launch of the first U.S.-regulated Bitcoin futures contract. This incident can be seen as a potential obstacle in Gemini’s DCM license application process.

Until January of this year, Gemini proactively reached a settlement with the CFTC, paying a $5 million settlement. Gemini’s move demonstrates its willingness to cooperate with CFTC regulations and ends a key dispute related to the CFTC’s license approval process, removing a major obstacle to the subsequent approval of the DCM license.

2. Focus on Compliance Layout>

In December 2024, Gemini obtained European Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) registration from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA).

In May of this year, Gemini obtained an investment company license from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). Once Gemini commences business operations, it will be able to offer regulated derivatives within the EU and the European Economic Area under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), a framework for regulating traditional financial markets. This license brings Gemini one step closer to offering derivatives to retail and institutional users in the EU and the European Economic Area. In August, Gemini obtained a license from the Crypto Asset Markets Authority (MiCA) in Malta, supporting the company's continued expansion in Europe. Gemini stated, "This approval marks a significant milestone in our regulatory expansion in Europe, enabling us to extend our secure and reliable cryptocurrency offerings to customers in over 30 European countries and regions. Clear regulation of the industry is fundamental to the global adoption of cryptocurrencies, and the implementation of MiCA demonstrates that Europe is one of the most innovative and forward-thinking regions in this regard." While none of the licenses Gemini obtained are from the United States, they help establish an image of "compliant operation," which is positive for its eventual acquisition of a DCM license from the US CFTC. 3. Successful IPO In June 2025, Gemini secretly submitted a draft S-1 form to the SEC. In August, the prospectus was officially released, with "fully compliant operation" as its core selling point. It disclosed its business footprint covering over 60 countries and regions, trading services for over 70 crypto assets, and core data on 13 million users and $50 billion in custodial assets, demonstrating its resilience through solid business scale. On September 12, Gemini went public. After Gemini's IPO, the SEC's stringent regulatory framework provided "third-party endorsement" for its compliance. Specifically, as a listed company, Gemini is required to publish quarterly financial reports, detailing its revenue composition, including transaction fees and custody fees (transaction fees account for approximately 2/3), as well as core data such as operating costs and user growth. III. Which other exchanges are expanding their business into prediction markets? 1. Robinhood Back in 2024, Robinhood and Kalshi began their collaboration and launched a prediction market service. In March of this year, Robinhood and Kalshi further jointly launched a core entry point for trading event contracts, officially scaling up their prediction project. As of November 2025, over 1 million users had traded 9 billion contracts in the project, with 2.3 billion contracts processed in the third quarter of 2025 alone. In terms of revenue, the project has brought considerable returns to Robinhood, with annualized revenue from event contract products exceeding $200 million in September, and potentially exceeding $300 million in the future. On November 26, Reuters reported that Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group planned to acquire a company associated with the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX to enter the prediction market. Robinhood and Susquehanna will acquire 90% of LedgerX, which remained solvent after FTX's bankruptcy in 2022. This acquisition could enable Robinhood to challenge large prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood will become the "controlling partner" in this new plan. Meanwhile, Susquehanna will act as the "first-day liquidity provider," ensuring clients have reliable trading partners. Analysts believe this new agreement will allow Robinhood and Susquehanna to directly control the systems needed to create and settle event contracts, and to settle them their own way, especially as Wall Street, sports leagues, and cryptocurrency companies vie to shape the future of regulated speculation. Note: Strictly speaking, Robinhood is not an exchange in the traditional sense, but it is a brokerage firm connecting to multiple exchanges, hence the mention of Robinhood in this section. 2. Crypto.com On December 3, sportswear company Fanatics announced a strategic partnership with Crypto.com to launch Fanatics Markets, a fan-driven prediction market platform. Similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, Fanatics Markets will allow users to trade contracts that predict the outcomes of real-world events. Fanatics Markets will launch in two phases. The first phase is already online, covering event contracts in the sports, finance, economics, and politics sectors. The second phase will launch early next year, at which time Fanatics Markets will expand to event contracts in areas such as cryptocurrency, stocks/IPOs, climate, popular culture, technology/artificial intelligence, film, and music. Travis McGhee, Global Head of Predictions at Crypto.com, stated, “Crypto.com pioneered the sports prediction market, and we continue to expand our reach through innovative partnerships with top platforms like Fanatics. We are honored to be Fanatics’ preferred partner, and together we will provide fans with a safe and compliant way to access prediction markets.” 3. Coinbase On November 13th, Coinbase and Kalshi announced a partnership, allowing Coinbase to act as the custodian for Kalshi’s USDC-based event contracts. On November 19th, technology researcher Jane Manchun Wong claimed to have discovered website data indicating that Coinbase is creating a prediction market platform: Coinbase may be directly integrating with Kalshi. The leaked image shows a standard prediction market interface with the Coinbase branding, seemingly allowing users to participate using USDC or USD. Other options include categories such as economics, sports, science, politics, and technology. This suggests that Coinbase's event contracts are likely to be: fully regulated in the US; cash-settled; supported by Kalshi's existing approval system; integrated with Coinbase accounts and custodial wallets; and ultimately settled in USDC, which was co-founded and heavily promoted by Coinbase. Conclusion Gemini's acquisition of a DCM license from the CFTC and its official announcement of entering the prediction market is a microcosm of the cryptocurrency field's shift from "wild growth" to "compliant development," and also proof of the continued popularity of the prediction market sector. Gemini's five-year journey to obtain the license has finally borne fruit. It's only a matter of time before other crypto giants such as Coinbase enter the prediction market and grab a share of the pie.