Polymarket Sees Bets on Pope Francis’ Fate in Vatican

Speculating on the Pope’s fate may be more than just controversial—it could risk excommunication under a little-known church decree dating back to the 1500s.

As Pope Francis’ hospital stay enters its second week, wagers on his future have surged on Polymarket, with nearly $200,000 bet on whether a new pope will be elected in 2025 or if Francis will step down before July.

Polymarket has faced backlash before for distasteful bets, including one on the doomed Titan submersible in 2023.

Yet, gambling on papal succession is hardly new.

In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV explicitly banned such wagers, condemning them as sacrilegious and punishable by excommunication.

Even before that, bookies in 16th-century Rome took bets on Pope Gregory XIII’s movements while he was gravely ill, drawing concern from clergy and European leaders.

Gregory XIV denounced the practice, arguing that mixing money with the sacred corrupted the spiritual with the vulgar customs of the market.

Fate of Pope Francis?

Catholics looking to wager on Pope Francis’ fate need not fear excommunication.

Gregory XIV’s 1591 decree banning papal betting was abolished in 1918 when canon law was modernised, according to uCatholic.

Today, excommunication applies to offenses like heresy, sacramental violations, and physical violence against the pope—not placing bets on his health.

It said:

“There is currently no canon law on conclave or cardinal wagers.”

Meanwhile, Pope Francis remains in critical condition with kidney failure and double pneumonia.

Over the weekend, he once again asked for prayers, not wagers, as he continued treatment at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital.

He wrote:

"In recent days I have received many messages of affection, and I have been particularly struck by the letters and drawings from children. Thank you for this closeness, and for the prayers of comfort I have received from all over the world! I entrust you all to the intercession of Mary, and I ask you to pray for me."

Unable to deliver the traditional Sunday Angelus prayer in person for a second week, the 88-year-old pontiff shared a written message expressing gratitude to doctors, hospital staff, and well-wishers.

Outside the hospital, dozens of supporters gathered, lighting candles at the foot of a statue of the late Pope John Paul II.

With the Vatican confirming the severity of his condition, an ethical dilemma persists: Is betting on the Pope’s fate a mere financial play, or a troubling moral lapse?