How wrong were the 2025 BTC price predictions?

Author: Olivier Acuna, CoinDesk; Translator: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance

• Despite optimistic predictions, Bitcoin ultimately closed well below its peak, marking its first full-year loss since 2022.

• On October 10th, Bitcoin experienced a flash crash, falling nearly 10% shortly after reaching an all-time high.

• Price predictions for Bitcoin in 2025 varied greatly, with many analysts failing to anticipate the market decline.

As 2025 draws to a close, few events in the cryptocurrency market have been more dramatic than the "flash crash" of October 10th. At that time, Bitcoin plummeted by $12,000 in just a few minutes, a drop of nearly 10%.

This crash triggered over $19 billion in liquidations in just 24 hours, followed by cascading warnings among traders, wiping out a staggering $500 billion in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. This laid the groundwork for Bitcoin's continued decline, a crash that could very well result in its first full-year loss since the 2022 cryptocurrency winter. The atmosphere at the beginning of the year was relatively optimistic, with a wide range of Bitcoin price predictions, from wildly imaginative scenarios to more conservative targets, some even seemingly within reach. However, the crash on October 10th completely changed everything. From seasoned analysts to outspoken advocates, many predictions shared one thing in common: they wouldn't stand the test of time. Let's set aside Fidelity's global head of macro, Jurrien Timmer's long-term prediction that Bitcoin would reach $1 billion by 2038, and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's prediction that Bitcoin would reach $700,000 if institutional adoption were large enough. Even the more conservative predictions now seem somewhat exaggerated. Some predictions are not only optimistic, but explosive. Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3, predicted in February that Bitcoin would reach $1 million by the end of 2025, driven by a collapse in fiat currencies, and experience a "drastic" surge. His view was supported by Adam Back, CEO and founder of Blockstream, arguably one of the most respected figures in the Bitcoin space. Back reportedly also stated in April that he believed Bitcoin could reach $500,000 to $1 million by the end of 2025. His optimistic argument was based on factors such as ETF inflows, institutional buying, and limited supply. He is not the only one holding this view. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya also predicted that Bitcoin's price would reach $500,000 in October. Even some more conservative year-end price targets have exceeded all-time highs. This includes analysts at JPMorgan Chase, who raised their year-end price forecast to $165,000 in early October, before the crash, citing the growing prevalence of "devaluation trading" and increasing investor demand for alternative stores of value. Even after the crash, Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Bitcoin fund management company Strategy (MSTR), expressed his "expectation" for Bitcoin's price on October 28, believing it would "reach around $150,000 by the end of the year," undoubtedly boosting bullish hopes. Strategy, the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, purchased another $1 billion worth of Bitcoin on December 15, increasing its total holdings to 671,268 coins. Of course, they are not isolated cases. Throughout 2025, the cryptocurrency space saw a deluge of price predictions, most of which merely served as reminders of just how difficult prediction truly is. VanEck's digital asset research team predicted Bitcoin would peak at $180,000 in the first quarter, more than $50,000 higher than the actual high. Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, stated that Bitcoin would reach $200,000 in 2025, citing "the most bullish market pattern in years." Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee maintained his $200,000 to $250,000 prediction in October. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes even stated in November that he was "sticking" to a similar prediction range. The Frustrating Truth: Only a Few Lowered Their Expectations in Time. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, who predicted Bitcoin would reach $500,000, was one of the few to publicly lower his forecast. In October, he stated that Bitcoin's price could be between $120,000 and $125,000 by the end of the year. Standard Chartered followed suit in December, lowering its target price from $200,000 to $100,000. Ultimately, 2025 taught the market a new lesson: Bitcoin will make everyone see where they stand. It ignores all models, breaks chart predictions, and disregards even the boldest forecasts. Some predictions were only a hair's breadth off, while others were wildly inaccurate. But almost everyone was wrong. After the dust settled, the entire industry once again faced the need to redraw charts, rewrite narratives, and reach an undeniable conclusion: in the cryptocurrency world, prediction is easy, but accurate prediction is rare.