Sam Altman, the helmsman of OpenAI, published an in-depth analysis of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on his blog. Once released, it instantly ignited heated discussions about the future on the entire network. How capable is this AGI that can make the bigwigs from all walks of life sit still? First, for those who don’t know much about it, let me popularize it. AGI, the full name of Artificial General Intelligence, is simply a "super brain" that can compete with humans in many fields and solve complex problems. Although there is still some controversy about its definition, Sam Altman said that the emergence of AGI, like the birth of electricity, transistors, computers and the Internet, will become a key force in promoting human innovation. OpenAI’s goal is very clear, which is to make the benefits of AGI benefit everyone. Imagine that with the blessing of AGI, conquering all diseases is no longer a fantasy, and we can have more time to accompany our families and unleash our creativity. This picture is simply too beautiful!
Sam Altman proposed three key insights about AI economics in the article, which are the core or shock wave of understanding the economic impact of AGI:
The subtle relationship between intelligence and resources
AI models want to become smarter, but they cannot do without a lot of training and running resources, such as powerful computing power and massive amounts of data. Interestingly, there is a logarithmic relationship between them, which means that the more resources invested, the more stable and predictable the performance improvement of the model, just like saving money in a piggy bank, the more you save, the greater the harvest.
Cost Diving and Popularization Frenzy
The cost of using AI is falling at the speed of light, decreasing 10 times every 12 months. Take GPT-4 to GPT-4o as an example. In just one and a half years, the cost of each token has plummeted 150 times, which is even more exaggerated than Moore's Law. The significant reduction in costs will inevitably promote the large-scale popularization of AI in various fields. In the future, AI may become an indispensable part of our lives like mobile phones.
The economic multiplier effect of intelligent growth
Don't underestimate the linear growth of intelligence. It can bring super-exponential social and economic value. This is like throwing a stone into a calm lake, and the ripples will continue to spread. This powerful economic effect will attract more capital to the field of AI, driving the economy to an unprecedented explosive growth.
Of course, the next focus of artificial intelligence is AI agents. Think about it, there may be AI agents among your colleagues in the future, isn't it amazing? Sam Altman predicts that in specific fields such as software engineering, AI agents will be able to take on complex work tasks. Of course, they still need human supervision and guidance, but there is no doubt that their participation will greatly improve work efficiency. Perhaps in the near future, there will be millions of AI agents active in various knowledge work fields, just as transistors were quietly integrated into every corner of the economy.
Altman believes that the impact of AGI on society and the economy is profound, but it may not be easy to detect in the short term. As AGI develops, the pace of scientific progress will be greatly accelerated, and the prices of many commodities will drop significantly, making our cost of living lower. But the price of scarce resources such as land may rise. In this era of rapid change, personal adaptability, decision-making ability and subjective initiative become particularly important. Sam Altman emphasized that the integration of AGI requires the joint participation of public policies and the whole society. OpenAI released the product ahead of schedule in the hope that technology and society can develop in sync. At the same time, we must find a balance between security and individual empowerment, and never let AI become a tool for large-scale surveillance and repression.
For AGI to truly benefit all mankind, it is crucial to ensure that its benefits are fairly distributed. Although technological progress generally improves health and economic conditions, we also need new solutions to the issue of equality. Sam Altman proposed some very creative ideas, such as allocating a "computing budget" to each person to ensure fair use of AI resources. He also reminded us that the balance of power between capital and labor may be broken and intervention is needed as soon as possible. This requires the government, enterprises, social organizations and other parties to work together to make the development of AGI in line with the long-term interests of mankind, that is, to achieve equality and resource allocation, so that everyone can share the dividends of AGI.
From the blog, Sam Altman is full of confidence in the future. He envisions that by 2035, everyone will have resources equivalent to the total intelligence of all mankind in 2025. What a huge creative potential this will release! As long as we can reduce the cost of intelligence and allow more people to give full play to their talents, the social benefits brought about by this will be immeasurable. Imagine a future world where everyone can become a source of innovation. What a vibrant and hopeful era that will be.
In general, Sam Altman's article outlines a beautiful picture of the future of AGI for us, and also reminds us that when enjoying the dividends brought by technological progress, we cannot ignore the challenges and responsibilities. AGI is not only a technological breakthrough, but also a powerful driving force for social change. As long as we plan reasonably and the whole society works together, AGI will bring unprecedented prosperity and progress to all mankind. We are standing at the starting point of a new era, and the direction of the future depends on every decision and action we make now. Original text: https://blog.samaltman.com/three-observations
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