In recent months, Bitcoin has been repeatedly fluctuating around $100,000, and has even fallen below $90,000. Some people suspect that the bull market is over, but it is time to recharge their faith.
I am more inclined to believe that this is the last drop.
Twilight witnesses true believers.
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a certain event and a starting point. I have always believed that BTC is an asset with risk-free and stable returns, but Bitcoin will not stop here, and traditional financial capital will not be so patternless.
At this time, we need to know where we are now and where we will go in the future.
In the long term, here we review 2024 and look forward to 2025, so that we can see the direction of the market clearly.
1. How do you view the rapid rise of Bitcoin in 2024?
The rapid rise of Bitcoin is the result of the combined effects of many factors:
The most direct factor is ETFs and the entry of traditional funds;
The indirect factor is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut channel and the improved liquidity of the capital market;
The long-term factor is policy expectations and expectations for Trump’s future policies;
Finally, there is the impact of Bitcoin’s own cycle. Its production will be halved in April 2024, and the incremental rate is already lower than that of gold.
In short, in 2024, it can be said that the right time, right place, and right people are all gathered. Not only is there the driving force of the external macro environment, but also the internal driving force of the industry itself.
2. How do you view the future price trend of Bitcoin?
The final price of Bitcoin is very vague and cannot guide investment. Therefore, do not guess the final price. Many institutions predict that Bitcoin will reach 500,000 US dollars or 1 million US dollars in the future, which is worthless.
Therefore, we must limit ourselves to the medium and short term, that is, to look at the price trend in the next one or two years.
To answer this question, we must first clarify the current market stage: we have entered the second half of the bull market.
In September 2024, when Bitcoin was more than 70,000, everyone was still doubting whether it had really entered a bull market, but when Bitcoin reached 100,000, no one doubted it.
According to the cycle theory, the entire industry is still in the middle of the bull market. Therefore, after the market sentiment reaches extreme greed, there is no need to panic about the subsequent correction, and the main upward wave will still come.
For example, in March 2024, the market was in a greedy state for more than a month, and finally the BTC price reached a staged high of about 73,000 US dollars, and then it started to pull back, and the pullback and sideways trend lasted for more than half a year.
If the price from 16,000 in January 2023 to 72,000 in March 2024 was the first wave of the main upward wave, after a long halftime break, the market entered the second half of the bull market from September 2024, and entered the second wave of the main upward wave.
In this wave of main rising waves, BTC prices will have a short-term decline or sideways for several months, but the overall trend is still upward, and this upward cycle will last for about a year.
The bull market is conceived in pessimism, born in despair, grows in doubt, matures in optimism, and dies in excitement.
Don't doubt it, welcome to the second half of the bull market.
However, whether there will be a third wave in the future, and where the BTC price will go after breaking through 100,000, no one knows, and no one can guess the top.
It can only be said that after the BTC price broke through 100,000, the ceiling was opened, and the market in 2025 is worth looking forward to.
Don't guess the top, no one can guess the top. The key depends on everyone's own psychological expectations and profit expectations. For example, if the average cost is 20,000, then 100,000 is already 5 times.
We only look at the cycle and trend. This round of cycle started early, and the historical high of BTC may appear in the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around 150,000 US dollars.
3. Does the Bitcoin ecosystem have opportunities?
First, from a macro perspective, where does the industry liquidity come from? In fact, it is the old money of traditional financial institutions such as ETFs and RWAs.
The Crypto industry has a multi-level reservoir effect: BTC first took on external liquidity, and ETH used to continue to take on the overflow liquidity, but this round is different. BTC has an ecosystem, so BTCFi has a very large opportunity to take on BTC's overflow liquidity.
The direction of the BTC ecosystem is mainly to release BTC's liquidity, and a key problem needs to be solved: how to safely cross-chain BTC? Or not cross-chain, through lock-up, mapping to other chains.
BTC is the asset with the strongest consensus and the highest security, and it is worth building a financial system around BTC.
Next, we need to think about a question: where to build BTCFi?
The first layer issues assets and the second layer does applications, so BTC Layer2 still has a chance.
BTC Layer2 has three technical solutions: state channel, side chain, and Rollup.
Among them, the most orthodox Layer2 is the Lightning Network, which is superimposed with the capabilities of Taproot Assets and is very suitable for issuing stablecoins and payment scenarios.
Wanlian Interconnection: Taking Ethereum as an example, solve the problem of liquidity fragmentation of many chains in advance.
Which one will come out?
In addition to technological innovation, good projects generally meet three characteristics: strong product iteration capabilities, strong marketing capabilities, and wealth-creating effects.
4. Will there be new narrative opportunities for Bitcoin in the future?
Bitcoin is now called "digital gold". I can summarize the future narrative with one concept: "interest-bearing digital gold".
If BTC just lies there, like gold in a bank vault, then the advantages and potential of BTC are not fully utilized. This is a pity.
Especially after Trump really uses BTC as a national strategic reserve, BTC will also become a capital reserve for many companies.
At this time, the key is to combine BTCFi and turn BTC into an interest-bearing asset (similar to ETH).
In the traditional financial market, interest-bearing assets account for more than 90% of total assets, so we can see the importance of interest-bearing assets to the financial market.
For example, after Ethereum switched from the PoW mechanism to the PoS mechanism, due to the staking scenario, Ethereum can obtain staking income, making Ethereum an interest-bearing asset, which has spawned a series of financial gameplays in the Ethereum ecosystem.
The Ethereum ecosystem has seen a series of innovative financial products such as liquidity pledge, re-pledge, and liquidity re-pledge, which have attracted more liquidity into the ecosystem and brought a strong wealth effect.
The Bitcoin ecosystem also needs such interest-bearing assets as underlying assets, so that more new ways of playing can emerge and accelerate the vitality of the ecosystem.
Now we need to solve this important proposition: How to turn Bitcoin into an interest-bearing asset?
Among them, Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv are all valuable attempts.
Imagine a scenario like this: the Lightning Network is a payment network that only uses BTC interest or future expected returns, and the principal has not been moved. This is equivalent to using BTC's time value and future returns.
This is a very valuable and exciting scenario.
5. Summary
(1) About the trend of BTC in 2025: We only look at the cycle and trend. This cycle started early, and the peak of BTC in this cycle may appear around the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around $150,000.
(2) Opportunities in the BTC ecosystem: BTCFi and BTC Layer2. BTCFi will first take over the overflowing liquidity of BTC, and BTCFi is built on BTC Layer2.
(3) BTC's future narrative: interest-bearing digital gold. The next narrative of BTC is to become an interest-bearing asset. Currently, Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv have made many valuable and relatively successful attempts.
Bitcoin can at most trap you, but it won't cut you off.
If you want to be a diamond hand, be a diamond hand of Bitcoin.
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