Is Bitcoin experiencing a correction or a new bear market?

Author: Bitcoin Magazine Pro; Translation: Plain Language Blockchain

Bitcoin has begun to show clear signs of weakness, with its recent drop below six figures ($100,000) prompting a reassessment of its near-term outlook. With some key technical and on-chain levels breached, I have recalibrated my base case scenario, which now presents a less than 50% chance of a retest of new all-time highs in the coming weeks. This could change rapidly if key levels are restored, but until then, the market appears to have shifted from a trending uptrend into a correction phase.

“Buying the Dip”

Bitcoin has seen a significant pullback, but buying the dip is not always the best approach unless it's within a confirmed bullish trend. In a bearish environment, even nascent pullbacks can still lead to substantial price declines.

Bitcoin has experienced a considerable pullback, but buying the dip is not always the best strategy unless it's within a confirmed bullish trend.

In a bearish environment, nascent pullbacks can still result in significant price drops.

Short-term pullbacks and impending retracements are typical in downtrend markets, making it crucial to **react based on data rather than preemptively predicting the bottom**. This pattern of multiple pullbacks can be seen in our chart analysis of the previous **Short-Term Holder Realized Price**. It's also clear that this indicator acted as **key resistance** during this phase, with a sustained rally only occurring after BTC recovered to the Short-Term Holder Realized Price level. [Image: https://www.hellobtc.com/d/file/202511/9e0c8bf7ec47ea5cf650311fc0af49e4.png](https://www.hellobtc.com/d/file/202511/9e0c8bf7ec47ea5cf650311fc0af49e4.png) ... However, there is a caveat: if the price effectively reclaims key levels, the entire picture will change. This is why it might make sense to make small allocations during this pullback, and to postpone further purchases until we see macro consistency at the levels, thus adopting a reverting defensive approach. Key observation levels and the Bitcoin Realization Price (BTC Realization Price) more clearly indicate where the broader market cost base lies. Currently, the network's realization cost base is clustered in the $50,000 range, but this figure is rising daily. Figure 2: Historically, bear market bottoms typically occur when the BTC price is below its actual value. The 200-Week Moving Average (200-Week Moving Average) also shows a similar pattern, as it is currently also in the $50,000 range. Historically, points where this indicator intersects with the price have provided strong long-term accumulation opportunities. Figure 3: The 200-day moving average (WMA) also suggests that $55k is an accumulation point, even though it's rising daily. These are slowly rising daily, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin's trend continues. Importantly, when spot prices trade near the network's historical average cost, **value tends to level off, and key buy support levels provide consistency**. Supply and Demand Signals

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important indicator for identifying pressure points among long-term and experienced holders. Very low readings indicate that a large amount of long-dormant cryptocurrency has not been moved, which often coincides with market bottoms. However, **short-term surges may indicate capitulation pressure**, which typically accompanies or precedes major market turning points.

Figure 4: Current VDD multiple readings indicate that larger and more experienced participants in the market remain very active.