Written by: Editor Jr., BlockTempo
Ethereum (ETH) has recently shown strong upward momentum that surpasses Bitcoin. This morning (May 11), after Trump announced significant progress in trade talks with China, ETH once broke through $2,600, rekindling short-term market optimism. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index calculated by CMC has bottomed out and rebounded to 40 recently, setting a high point in nearly 90 days. This has sparked heated discussions on whether the "Altcoin Season" is coming.
Some market observers are positive about the future of altcoins. Analyst Mister Crypto predicts that the market may usher in a "life-changing" market in the next three to six months, and altcoins may see a 40% daily return.
Technical trader Moustache also pointed out that altcoins often experience explosive growth after repeated accumulation. He believed that the current market structure was similar to that in 2016 and 2020, and declared that "the altcoin season has officially begun in 2025."
However, not all analysts are optimistic. Although analyst 2Lambroz acknowledged that the altcoin season may be coming, he pointed out that "people want to chase the rise, but lack the belief in a strong narrative" in the market. He observed that unlike 2021, there is no large number of retail investors entering the market, and traders' funds are rotating faster, lacking the motivation to hold for the long term.
Commentator Rekt Fencer questioned the optimism, pointing out that most altcoins have fallen 90% since December last year, and the recent rebound of about 10% is easy to be over-interpreted, and sarcastically said: "Is this the altcoin season we are waiting for?" He believes that Bitcoin's dominance is still above key thresholds such as 54%, and institutional preference for Bitcoin may continue to affect capital flows. This round of the market may be more divided, and the performance of altcoins in different sectors will be significantly different.
In addition to technical analysis, the future direction of the altcoin market is also affected by multiple key factors. First, the price of Bitcoin and its market dominance are crucial. The rise in Bitcoin prices boosted market sentiment, but changes in its dominance are still the key to judging the altcoin season. Secondly, overall market sentiment and risk appetite are also important factors. Optimistic developments in global macroeconomics and geopolitics, such as progress in US-China trade negotiations and easing tensions between India and Pakistan, may drive capital inflows into risky assets including cryptocurrencies and meme coins.
Kronos Research CEO Hank Huang said that the cryptocurrency market is riding on the wave of global optimism and rebounding. Ethereum's strong rebound has driven the altcoin market, but whether funds can effectively rotate from Bitcoin to altcoins and the degree of retail investor participation remain key points of observation.
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