Is it too late to participate in AI agency now?

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

During the online exchange on Saturday, many readers asked whether it is too late to participate in AI agents now?

I think it depends entirely on the investor's judgment of the AI ​​agent track and personal investment style.

In my opinion, the development of AI agents is still in the early to mid-term stage, and there is still a certain distance from the peak.

There are three main reasons:

First, the AI ​​agent track is not like the early stage now, because there are already tokens with a market value of billions, and more than one. This shows that the track has already seen an obvious head group effect.

Second, the market of the entire encrypted asset has not yet reached its climax. Since the big market has not yet reached its climax, there is still room for the development of local sub-sectors, especially newly emerging fields such as AI agents.

My view on the climax of the entire encrypted market is still the same as before: I estimate that the climax of this round of market may come between March and August this year, and the risks will become higher and higher after August.

Therefore, the climax of this round of AI agent market may be between March and August, but the specific time is difficult to judge.

Finally, looking at the sub-sector of AI agent alone, the current development is still vigorous, and new concepts, new ideas, and new technologies are still emerging every day.

For example, in the framework projects that have been popular in the ecosystem, in addition to the existing framework projects that are continuing to develop, a newly emerging project @hyperfy_io has just been launched in the past two days, and the market value of its token has reached 200 million US dollars.

It is somewhat bubble-like for a single project to show such a hot momentum, but from another aspect, it also shows that technological innovation is still emerging in an endless stream.

In addition, in the sub-sectors where multiple AI agents can be well combined (such as DeFi, games, etc.), there is no head project with particularly obvious advantages. I have always expected highlights in these sub-sectors.

Therefore, considering these factors, I believe there will be new highlights and opportunities in the future.

When it comes to specific project investments, there are still differences in the various categories of projects within the AI ​​agent ecosystem:

For example, the valuations of leading projects such as Virtual and AI16Z are not low. Virtual's market value has exceeded 4 billion US dollars, and AI16Z's market value has exceeded 2 billion US dollars.

In the previous article, I once estimated that there may be several leading projects with a market value of 10 billion US dollars in this round of AI agent track.

If the benchmark is 10 billion US dollars, although Virtual and AI16Z still have room for growth, their potential is limited.

In addition to these obvious leading projects, other sub-categories of AI agents (such as functional AI agents) still have a lot of room. For example, except for a few AI agents (such as AIXBT) that have obvious advantages, I think other AI agents may still be surpassed in the future even if they have advantages. In addition, new projects have been rising very rapidly every day recently.

This shows that there is still great potential to be tapped in the subdivided track.

In such a situation, the personal style of investors is very important.

If you are a very cautious investor, you may think that the potential of the top projects is limited and the sub-projects are difficult to judge, so you will not participate.

If you are an investor who is willing to take risks, you will still be willing to participate in this track.

I think both decisions are OK. No matter which one, the most important thing is not to be anxious, let alone feel that you have missed the opportunity.

I will still actively participate in the AI ​​agent track while controlling the risks.

My current energy is mainly focused on the sub-track and picking new potential projects. I will pay more attention to projects with a total market value between US$10 million and US$30 million, and try to find suitable and potential projects in this range.

Some investors have also asked: Can I change positions and exchange token A for AI agent token B?

I think it still depends on the investors' own estimation of the potential of these two tokens. If investors are sure that B has greater potential than A, they can switch, because the entire AI agent track is the most promising track at the moment; if they are hesitant, unclear or unsure, then I suggest not to switch.