Is the crypto market recovering because of a single statement from Apple CEO Tim Cook?

The quiet market suddenly experienced a recovery today. Yesterday at noon, an interview with Cook went viral. During the interview, Cook was asked, "Do you hold cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum? Would you try it?", to which he replied, "It's reasonable for individuals to hold cryptocurrencies as part of a diversified investment portfolio. By the way, this is not investment advice to anyone. I've been interested in crypto for a while and have been researching it. So, I think it's quite interesting." Although it's old news, it has been hyped up due to the media effect. Just today, the dormant crypto market reawakened, with Bitcoin returning above $110,000, currently trading at $111,600. Altcoins, led by ETH, also saw a rebound, with ETH now trading at $4,105. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $3.85 trillion, and the fear index has risen from 28 to 39. While accurate attribution is difficult, if we only observe the events, Cook's remarks do seem to have had a positive impact on the market. More important, of course, is the recession data. As of August 2025, the US labor market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. Nonfarm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, far below expectations, and average job growth over the past three months has been just 29,000. Historical data has been significantly revised downward, with a projected 911,000 job losses between 2024 and 2025, the largest revision in two decades. The simultaneous decline in unemployment and employment rates has sounded the alarm for a recession in the market, with UBS even reporting a 93% probability of a US recession. Ideally, while market expectations for a US recession continue to rise, the current state of affairs suggests the probability may not be as high as initially thought. As previously mentioned, the US economy is remarkably resilient, primarily due to the following factors: First, it is supported by strong household balance sheets, with low leverage ratios for both businesses and households, and is currently in a cycle of private sector balance sheet expansion; second, it is driven by infrastructure investment and is currently in a technological innovation cycle led by AI; and third, it is driven by the start of a cycle of interest rate cuts. After several years of tightening, the Federal Reserve has considerable room to maneuver, with up to 400 basis points of room to cut, providing soft support for asset prices. In the near term, the CME "Fed Watch" indicator shows an 89.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, while the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 10.7%. In summary, the fundamentals of the US economy are more robust than expected, and the foundation for an upward cycle is in place. Even from a data perspective, it's still too early to talk about a recession. Neither unemployment nor inflation has reached alarming levels yet. Andrew Kang's assessment is merely one person's opinion and shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. After all, he boldly predicted in April this year that ETH would fall below $1,000. While these words may seem light, they nonetheless reflect the market's deep distrust of Ethereum. This distrust is long-standing. The price, once stable for years, is now stagnant in the application market. Even the much-hyped Ethereum treasury was dampened by the recent joint investigation into treasury companies launched by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (Finra). These incidents have dampened investor confidence in Ethereum's price. This has also led to the objective reality that even slightly negative news often leads to sharper declines and more volatile fluctuations in Ethereum's price. It's worth noting that the ETH staking exit queue has already reached a staggering 2.13 million, creating significant pressure to exit. Of course, although there is price pressure, it is still necessary to be cautious when shorting Ethereum. After all, it is still the most important currency in the encryption market besides Bitcoin, and it is also one of the only two currencies that institutions are willing to hold heavily. However, considering its volatility and existing fundamentals, operations should be more cautious than BTC. From a broader market perspective, potential short-term negatives include the upcoming TOKEN2049 in October. Focus will be on observing whether the "summit-to-fall" curse reappears. New US labor data and Federal Reserve trends also warrant close attention, as they will have a more profound impact on the market. Positive news is also on the horizon. The coming weeks will be a busy period for altcoin ETF approvals, marking the final deadline. The market predicts the SEC will approve at least one ETF.