Judging from gold, Bitcoin, etc., the US dollar has entered a historical garbage time

Author: Xiao Lei Sees the World

In the past two decades, every time the US dollar encounters a major depreciation cycle, the market always hears such a voice, that is, the US dollar may collapse, but often under the US's operation, a new dollar appreciation cycle will appear, making the view that the dollar collapse is self-defeating, which makes the market's discussion and research on the dollar actually become a kind of reinforcement of each other's prejudices, rather than a deeper thinking about the overall historical trend.

When we discuss the US dollar, we are not actually discussing the strength of the US dollar. The real logic is that the US dollar is the most important currency in the world and is a core point for studying and understanding many global economic and trade issues. On the other hand, to understand the problem of the US dollar more thoroughly, we need to start with other global issues, rather than simply based on the staged trend of the US dollar.

The United States is a very special country, because the operation and evolution of the entire American subject are actually completely "designed", which is fundamentally different from most countries in the world that are based on historical inheritance and self-evolution.

I will give you a simple example so that you can understand it. For example, the United States has always defined itself as an immigrant country. This sentence is actually a basic structural "design". Many problems must be understood based on this. Therefore, when we look at the United States' international relations and domestic education system, you will find that they are all based on the design of "immigration". The United States will open up more immigrants to a country or region if it has good relations with it, close economic and trade ties, or if there will be a larger industrial transfer layout in the future.

At the same time, many people say that the United States does not attach importance to basic education (at the mass level, not the elite level), but in fact, based on a country that can use "immigration" to solve the problem of talent, the talents contributed by domestic basic education are not very "important" in themselves, which makes the basic education in the United States not linked to the talent needs of the entire country of the United States. As long as the talent system on the "immigrant" side does not have problems, no matter how poor the basic education in the United States is, it will not affect the development of the industry and technology in the United States.

Therefore, to understand many of the most superficial social phenomena and operating modes in the United States, we must first start with the top national "design" of the United States. In fact, the same is true for understanding the problem of the US dollar.

一

What is the currency used for? This question seems to be a common sense in economics and a self-evident common sense in life, but in fact, the question of what is the currency used for has not been fully discussed at the academic level.

Here I would like to provide you with a new idea, which is also some conclusions that I have been thinking about (thinking about) recently. For your discussion.

Before 1972, that is, before the US dollar and gold were completely decoupled, the evolution of human currency was generally related to "physical objects". Paper money originated in the Song Dynasty in China, because at that time China had a very powerful distribution of "money houses", and the entity of "money houses" became the credit guarantee of paper money.

If the evolution of all human currencies before 1972 is inseparable from "physical objects", what does it mean? It means that currency itself does not have non-physical credit. Currency is just a bookkeeping tool to facilitate transactions. If anyone uses currency to do business, that is, to "make money" with currency, it will often be regarded as an "infringement" on the sale of "physical objects" and will damage the entire business system.

This is not my understanding out of thin air. The earliest Arab merchants, who are recognized as the best at doing global business, opened up the Eurasian commercial system, translated and preserved ancient Greek classics, turned Indian numbers into Arabic numbers, and spread Arabic numbers and geometry to all parts of the world. In Islam, they all forbade doing currency business, that is, you cannot lend money (you cannot earn interest).

This seems incredible now, but based on the perspective that I just said that "currency" business will "infringe" the "real" trading, you will understand why Islam, the only religion that originated from commercial trade, prohibits doing "currency" business in its doctrine. This is not accidental.

Please note that if the credit source and function of "currency" have not changed, that is, currency is based on "physical" credit, and the function of currency is only a bookkeeping tool, then all commercial profit-making behaviors based on pure currency that exist today will definitely harm other social economies, because this will make commodity pricing inaccurate, and creation and distribution unfair.

However, we can still analyze many problems from history. When Arab business dominated the world, Jews could not get involved in the physical business at all. Arab merchants monopolized almost all physical businesses, and the "currency" business that was excluded, even strictly prohibited and despised by Arab business was picked up by Jews.

But the problem is that if Jews only do "currency" business based on the "physical" credit endorsement of currency and the system of pure bookkeeping tools, there will be no second result, that is, they will definitely be "spurned" and squeezed out by physical business, and it will be difficult for them to continue.

Here comes the point. The Jews were forced to create the third function of "currency". It is precisely because of this third function that the pure currency business not only survived, but also almost changed the whole world.

二

Looking back at the history of Europe, the relationship between the king, religion, and currency is the most worthy of being seen together. The Jews were able to develop and grow in the European continent and finally establish a global influence. Even today, the United States is still difficult to get rid of the influence of the Jews. In fact, it is absolutely related to the Jews creating the third function of currency, thereby gaining a foothold and growing in the European continent.

So what is the third function of currency created by the Jews? In fact, it is also very simple to say, that is, to solve the financial and debt problems of the country (formerly the king). Please keep this function in mind.

When the kings of Europe often lost their territories, lost the dispatch of their subordinates, lost the possibility of winning wars, and lost the ability to resist religion due to finance and debt, what could help the kings solve the financial and debt problems? Assuming that money is just a physical credit and accounting tool, then solving the debt requires the creation of physical objects (gold or taxes), and this time it returns to physical commerce and various power games (religion can still sell indulgences, but kings cannot), and may even arouse greater social reactions.

However, the third function of money created by the Jews, that is, the ability to solve debt problems, has made money an independent tool system since then, which can not only meet the transaction, accounting and other functions of commercial trade entities, but also magically solve the financial and debt dilemmas at the top level of national management.

Today, many of the "legends" we see now have appeared, such as the Jewish consortium helping the kings of European countries to raise funds, and later financing various war parties, solving financial and debt problems for various countries, etc. This is actually the Jews completely "understanding" the third function of money. Just like when we look at the country of Israel now, its various hegemonies are disgusting, but we rarely hear that Israel has a debt crisis, and there is no money when fighting, etc. This has a great inheritance relationship with the history of the Jews using the third function of money.

It is precisely because of this function that the history of Europe and the world has been changed. There are endless historical empires in the world, but the most direct reason for the decline and distress of most empires is almost all due to finance and debt. But if we look at the Netherlands, Britain, France, etc. in modern history, the decline of these empires is not due to finance and debt, but precisely because other capabilities at the national level cannot keep up with the pace of currency to solve problems.

Three

Okay, having said that, let's go back to the issue of the US dollar.

In fact, the top-level structure of the US dollar, that is, the real value of the US dollar to the United States, is actually mainly the third function, that is, to solve the US fiscal and debt problems. We usually think that the most important functions of the US dollar, such as credit and accounting, if they are not ultimately used to solve the US fiscal and debt problems, then the so-called internationalization and other functions of the US dollar will have no meaning for the United States. Please note that what I am saying here is that it has no meaning, because the difference in currency is not very big, it is just a bookkeeping number.

And many discussions in the market now believe that if the US dollar is used to solve the US fiscal and debt problems, then the US dollar will collapse and become unsustainable, etc. This is a completely wrong understanding. In other words, only if the US dollar solves the US fiscal and debt problems can it not collapse and have the underlying support of the original design structure.

What does this mean? It is a very important indicator to test the modern sovereign credit currency. In essence, it is the sum of all the phenomena and values ​​of this currency. Can it sustainably solve the country's fiscal and debt accumulation? Because solving this level of challenge is the use and effective control of the third function of currency.

Looking at many internal fiscal and debt problems in countries around the world today, they can actually be directly understood from the evaluation indicator of the third function of currency. Similar to the inflation problem in Turkey (interest rates are close to 45%) and various social problems in Argentina, they are actually one of the phenomena that domestic currency cannot better solve national fiscal and debt problems (the ultimate goal of this Argentine Mille government is to abandon its own currency and use the US dollar throughout Argentina). There are many countries smaller than Turkey and Argentina, which basically have similar problems, so I will not give examples here one by one.

If we go back to the current US and look at the top-level design of the US dollar, you will find that the real problem of the US dollar is not the depreciation or exchange rate, interest rate cuts, etc., nor is it the question of who will be the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Instead, the US now no longer has the wisdom to use the US dollar to solve the US fiscal and debt problems. It has begun to reduce the solution to this problem to a lower dimension, that is, a very traditional (inefficient) fiscal and monetary system, such as imposing high tariffs, such as considering fiscal deficits as a sin, etc.

What does this mean? It means that almost all functions of the US dollar will be continuously weakened. It is like saying that the United States used to make a living by fishing in the sea, but now it has begun to return to its own pond to fish. This does not change the quantity, efficiency, etc., but the pond only has stock, which is non-renewable.

Four

Why did the United States come to this point?

This brings us back to the third function of currency, that is, why is the current dollar no longer effective in solving the fiscal and debt problems of the United States?

To answer this question, we need to make a very important assumption. Assume that a country's finances and debts are generated when the country solves the top-level development and distribution problems. For example, many of China's finances and debts are generated based on the country's most basic development, education, and poverty alleviation. At this time, using currency to solve fiscal and debt problems is actually completing the top-level development and distribution.

But if we look at the United States in recent decades, its accumulation of finances and debts is actually not based on the United States' own development and distribution, but on war and provoking war, so it needs to feed the huge domestic "deep" government. In fact, the existence of the "deep government" itself is to provoke war more "smoothly", and it belongs to the parasitic group of the system of war and preparation for war (forming a vicious circle).

At this time, if the United States solves its fiscal and debt problems based on the third function of the dollar, it is not actually solving the development and distribution problems of the United States, but creating a sustainable kidnapping of war expenditures. That is, if the United States wants to solve the domestic periodic fiscal and debt difficulties more thoroughly, it needs to periodically brew a large-scale international war, so that it can form an external conversion of fiscal and debt.

This is why the United States was also a belligerent during World War II and suffered great losses, but why before the war the United States was a debtor country, Britain and other countries were creditor countries, and after the war the United States became a creditor country, Britain and other countries became debtor countries. Furthermore, the debt deficit formed by external wars will support domestic production and expand the international recirculation system of the dollar. This means that even if the war generates certain debts and deficits, it will solve the actual development and growth needs from the perspective of monetary circulation.

Therefore, the current US fiscal and debt problems are a time bomb for the world, because the ultimate direction of solving this problem will subtly work towards war (rather than internal construction), and as for the policy methods and strategies in other directions, they will gradually be rejected, resisted, and eliminated. This is why almost every new US government has ambitious domestic reforms and various development policy plans at the beginning, but in the end these plans are almost difficult to implement, and they all end up provoking an external war.

This is not to say that all wars in the world are provoked by the United States, but when we analyze the operating logic of the United States, you will find that for the US government, the ease of launching foreign wars and the sense of accomplishment obtained are far easier and "faster" than promoting domestic reforms.

Five

So what should the world do when facing the other side of the United States? In fact, it is also very simple. If the whole world can suppress the possibility and impulse of the outbreak and expansion of war, the US finances and debts can only be internalized, that is, they can only be solved by their own adjustments, which is actually beneficial to the world and the United States in the long run.

From this perspective, when the world becomes multipolar, the potential targets of the United States to launch wars will become fewer and fewer, rather than more and more, which will also reduce the US impulse to launch wars.

The meaning of multipolarization is not that there are more nominal independent entities at the national level, but that the entities that the United States can directly control are decreasing, which means that the entities that directly intervene at the military level are decreasing.

Many people think that the several Middle East wars launched by the United States are because these countries are against the United States and have an "independent" pole outside the United States. In fact, it is just the opposite. It is precisely because the United States believes that it can control and solve these countries that it will launch wars. In other words, the "independence" created by these countries themselves is too weak, not too strong, and cannot form a pole in the world at all.

Like the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, why is the Trump administration so anxious to talk to Russia? Is it really because it wants to unite with Russia to fight against China? This is completely nonsense. The fact covered up by this rhetoric is that the United States cannot really defeat Russia. In other words, with the funding of the United States, Ukraine has not been able to defeat Russia so far, and the United States has to recognize Russia's "independence". This is what a multipolar world means.

Assuming that there is an obvious sign in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine will soon defeat Russia. Then think about it, will the United States still talk to Russia? Absolutely not. The various political parties in the United States will only grab the credit. Under which party's leadership did Ukraine, which was supported by the United States, defeat Russia? This kind of "grabbing credit" discussion will occupy most of the American public opinion market.

Of course, I am not discussing the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict here. These are two different things.

If we return to the topic, that is, the logic that I proposed that the US dollar has entered the garbage time of history, the United States can no longer find a country that can easily carry out military strikes (the Houthis are not included), and the third function of the US dollar cannot be effectively exerted at the level of the United States' extreme pressure on the world, which makes the US finances and debts can only be "internalized", and it is difficult to carry out debt replacement based on war. The core function of the US dollar in solving the US finances and debts has encountered historical suppression.

Six

If the above refers to the military part, let's talk about the return of manufacturing, which is also a hot issue in the US economy and global trade that everyone is discussing more.

It is actually very inaccurate to study the US economy by the proportion of manufacturing, because it is still related to the US structural design. When thinking about the manufacturing problem, we must think about the most basic question, that is, where does the US panic about China's manufacturing industry come from? Is it because it has robbed jobs in the US Rust Belt? Or is it because China's manufacturing industry accounts for too high a proportion?

In fact, none of these are true. Outside of China, 70% of the world's manufacturing industry is not in China's hands. As long as the United States can control the other 70% of the world's manufacturing industry, it will still be the world's most powerful manufacturing country. For example, ASML, the Dutch lithography giant, is actually strictly controlled by the United States. So why should the United States panic?

The reason is indeed very simple, that is, China's manufacturing industry, which accounts for 30% of the world, is not affected by the United States, not that Chinese manufacturing has robbed American jobs and impacted the US manufacturing industry.

Why did Yellen, the former US Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chairman, say that the return of American manufacturing is a daydream. This does not actually reflect party bias, nor does it mean that the US manufacturing industry cannot really return. Instead, from the perspective of the US fiscal, monetary, and various global architectural designs, the return of manufacturing to the United States is not a more trend-oriented or total benefit-maximizing thing for the current and future development of the United States.

The Trump administration has gradually realized this, and several important staff members no longer emphasize the return of manufacturing to the United States (they still have to talk about return when facing domestic voters). This has also undergone an important directional change from the perspective of international cooperation. One of them is that Vice President Vance’s visit to India this time mentioned the "reshaping" of global manufacturing and supply chains, rather than "reshaping".

"Reshaping" is in line with the United States' long-standing architectural design. To put it bluntly, it is the re-"transfer" of manufacturing and supply chains, from Japan and Europe half a century ago to Southeast Asia, from Southeast Asia to mainland China, and from mainland China to India. This is what "reshaping" means. Vance is a guy with a very foul mouth, but he has his own system. He also said something in India, which means that if the United States does not unite with India, the 21st century will be "dark". This statement not only reflects the United States' "will" to reshape the supply chain and global manufacturing, but also reflects its helplessness.

Seven

In the past few decades of the unipolar world, the global manufacturing industry and supply chain seem to be spread all over the world, but in fact the entire top-level layout design is almost completely in the hands of the United States. Which industries should be allocated to which regions or countries, the United States only needs to promote the spending tendency and flow direction of the US fiscal and US dollars. This makes the economic development system like China, which can no longer be allocated according to the US fiscal and US dollar allocation, make the American elite lose their sense of security, and at the same time, constantly pass this insecurity to the lower-class people in the United States, trying to find the legitimacy of various weird policies in this loss of control, so as to take extreme measures to "reshape" the global supply chain. This is why the current US government believes that it is the "chosen one" and "has a great responsibility". Since it has been chosen by God, it must do things that others cannot do.

What does this mean? From the perspective of dynamic economic trade, the global fiscal and monetary flow system locked by China has challenged the US's "allocation" power over the US dollar.

In the past, the United States could simultaneously attack the entire global trade and industrial chain system of Japan and Germany, and simultaneously attack the fragile capital and financial markets in Latin America, Southeast Asia and other countries, making the flow of global talent, capital, etc., one-way and irreversible to the United States. This also helped solve the US fiscal and debt problems. But this time it is different. It is already difficult for the United States to simultaneously attack the trade and supply chain systems of China, Japan and Europe. When focusing on attacking China, capital, talent, and supply chains no longer flow in a single direction to the United States, but into Europe and Japan. The supply chain also did not flow to a single country as the United States intended to intervene, but entered the system of dozens of developing countries around the world.

This makes the dollar enter the garbage time of history. In addition to the "multipolar world" that makes the United States capable of winning "fewer and fewer military targets", another reason is that the United States has lost the ability to "reshape" the world's manufacturing and trade. At this time, it has to threaten with tariff wars, etc., or return to the Americas or return to the United States. But this is actually the helplessness of the failure of "reshaping" global manufacturing and trade. This will bring about a chain reaction that cannot be ignored for the global structural design of the dollar and the accompanying ability to "reshape" global trade to solve internal fiscal and debt problems.

In fact, in addition to the "inability to do anything" in the two aspects of military and global trade "reshaping", the dollar's entry into the garbage time of history also requires a larger historical background of the technological and credit transformation era of human civilization that is not based on specific countries and international situations.

Eight

Money has moved from primitive, highly regional carriers such as shells to gold and silver. In fact, what it has brought is not a simple change in the properties of the currency carrier, but a change in the scope of consensus.

If shells are used as currency, people living by the sea will have a great advantage, because shells are easy to pick up, and the consensus is only caused by geographical differences. Gold and silver need to be explored, collected and smelted, and their distribution around the world is relatively even, which makes the process of obtaining gold and silver, as well as the properties they carry, have a universal consensus (more fair). However, gold and silver, like shells, face a limitation of their own conditions, that is, their storage and transportation, etc., require a lot of cost, and the supply does not have the flexibility of the design level. This will inhibit the efficiency of the entire trade in the global trade system, and it is impossible to better and faster improve the living and trade conditions of each trade participant (it can only be maintained and transferred), making it very easy for trade to be interrupted due to settlement and payment costs, as well as uncertainty in the process.

When it comes to the sovereign credit currency stage, that is, the paper currency stage, two important conditions must be met at the same time. One is to meet the huge consensus of global trade on currency, and the other is to solve the financial and debt problems of paper currency providers. That is, one is to meet the first and second functional systems of currency, and the other is to meet the third emerging function. In fact, meeting the great consensus of global trade is to solve the problems of security, efficiency, cost and scale, and solving the financial and debt problems of providers is to create stability and sustainability for this paper currency.

What kind of historical cycle has the current world entered? What we see now is that the tariff war and various forms of trade wars launched by the United States seem to be based on trade figures, but in essence, they have little to do with trade itself.

It's like one person sells eggs and another sells beef. The egg seller complains that every time I buy beef from you, it's one or two hundred yuan, and every time you buy eggs from me, it's a few yuan. Our relationship is seriously unbalanced. You have to buy more eggs from me in the future.

What does it mean? The trade problems facing the world now are not based on the logic of trade, but on the logic of "opponents". The so-called trade surplus and trade deficit are just to regard the country, which has little to do with each specific transaction, as a simple transaction subject, and thus draw a conclusion that those with trade surpluses take advantage and those with trade deficits suffer losses. This is like saying that those who sell beef take advantage and those who sell eggs suffer losses.

In fact, the real observation point of global trade is whether this kind of global trade will allow groups that could not use products to use products before, and groups that could not eat enough before to eat enough, and whether the scale of such groups that have improved due to global trade is getting bigger and bigger. This is the key point of the problem. It is like saying that no matter how great the invention of the steam engine is, if it cannot be spread to the world and injected into larger-scale production and trade, it will be difficult to trigger the industrial revolution, and its contribution to mankind will not be that great. The historical role of the steam engine is achieved through global trade, not through the calculation of deficits or surpluses. When Britain's technology exploded, it was precisely a trade deficit with China (Qing Dynasty) at that time.

Does that mean that some people have been impacted by global trade, and that global trade will end because of this impact? This may need to be viewed separately, because the most benign structural design of any economic model is based on protecting the vulnerable, dealing with emergencies and establishing growth, and these three needs often conflict with each other. If we want to establish a more long-term benign development and circulation system, it may bring short-term emergencies and impacts on vulnerable groups. At this time, we are not actually without a solution, that is, the third function of currency. Based on solving the problems of finance and debt, the third function of currency will be used, that is, finance and debt need to stand up to solve the problem when the three economic goals conflict.

The current mainstream global discussion and solution to the problem is to treat finance and debt as problems, as problems themselves, but in fact, from the perspective of global trade, that is, to keep global trade going, it is precisely necessary to support it with the finances and debts of various countries, and the weapon to solve the problem of finance and debt is not to sacrifice global trade.

At this point, we are back to the question of the third function of money. If we look at how Japan spent the lost three decades relatively controllably, and how the EU survived the huge debt and disintegration crisis that broke out in 2010, it is easy to find that it is the fiscal role played by monetary design. Today, when the United States wants to withdraw from the European security system and impose tariffs on the EU, the EU and the euro should panic, and the world should sell the euro and short EU assets. But the fact is that when Germany and the EU broke through the original fiscal constraints and began to use the third function of the euro to solve fiscal and debt needs, global confidence in the EU and the euro did not decline, but increased. The euro continued to appreciate against the US dollar, and funds from the US capital market flowed to Europe. If the EU did not operate in this way, but also launched a tariff war against the world and gave up using the third function of the euro, according to the EU's far weaker tolerance than the United States, the EU economy, the euro and the European Union might all collapse.

Nine

Does that mean that every country can use the third function of currency to solve fiscal and debt problems? This is actually a generalization of many current discussions on issues. Global trade has given countries that have already fallen into fiscal and debt problems an opportunity to gradually use global trade to maintain the basic functions of their own currencies and slowly solve fiscal and debt problems without having to start over.

What does this mean? Large-scale economies that maintain global trade, or economies that create major trade systems, will actually reduce their reliance on trade "barriers" when using currency to solve fiscal and debt problems, that is, they will not need to use tariffs to hinder the development of international trade. At this time, the continuity of global trade will be very strong, and many small and medium-sized economies can find better industries and development opportunities through the continuity of global trade. Domestic fiscal and debt, as well as monetary issues, will have a certain space and time period for development and problem solving.

From this perspective, if the world's major powers really want to start a tariff war regardless of everything, the small and medium-sized economies will soon be hit, because these economies cannot rely on their own currencies to solve domestic fiscal and debt problems.

At this time, when the market is discussing currency, it is easy to go to extremes, either jumping from the US dollar to the Zimbabwe dollar, or jumping from the fiscal and debt of Bangladesh to the fiscal and debt of the United States. In fact, this makes the entire market full of fear about the solution of trade issues, and the market will move from an optimistic development model to a risk-averse model. The specific manifestation is to enter into a discussion and cognitive choice of the ultimate meaning of global trade, thus creating a new cycle of extremes.

Therefore, history will return to conservatism. Since trade is only exchanged for paper money, and since paper money is a pile of waste paper, it takes so much labor to create and conduct global trade, but it is still exchanged for a pile of waste paper, which promotes consumerism and impacts domestic employment. At the same time, everyone will forget all the other values ​​created by trade itself, such as global factor mobility, improvement of global production and living conditions, mutual learning and interweaving of global innovation, global wisdom and civilization-level contribution to solving many human problems, etc.

What kind of ultimate consequence will that lead to? In the future, the best exchange for trade is gold and other assets, and world trade will actually return to the inefficiency of hundreds of years ago. The world has entered the stage of currency cognition and series of impact release from the production and competition stage dominated by trade.

That is to say, when the stigmatization of global trade led by the United States reaches a certain extent, many countries will naturally think that global trade, especially the problem of unbalanced surpluses and deficits, does not bring development and improvement to their own countries, but disasters. At this time, global trade becomes a security issue, and becomes a problem of populism, political speculation, inferior and scarce, and high-cost consumption kidnapping.

十

What does this have to do with the dollar entering the garbage time of history? In fact, it is very simple. When the United States pushed the world to begin to deny the most original value of global trade, it was actually taking the lead in denying the role of the dollar and the historical consensus it created (most of the global trade is based on the demand for the dollar). Thereby pushing the global currency market historically into a new era of currency multipolarity.

It can also be understood that the next global trade explosion will either come from the reshaping of the earth's trade structure or from the creation of a new monetary consensus system. Otherwise, the world will enter a long period of developmental "garbage time" (including information islands, stagnant growth, but self-praise, and the United States has already shown such signs).

The reshaping of the global trade structure that I mentioned here can be understood by giving an example. For example, European trade was originally based on the Mediterranean, then based on Western Europe and Northern Europe, and then based on North America and the Atlantic. Whether it will be able to return to the Eurasian continent and create a larger scale in the future is a reshaping of the global trade structure. This is not as good as simply signing a few trade agreements under coercion and inducement. It is not of any substantial help in solving global trade problems, and it can also be said to be just a stopgap measure.

For the entire market, a more obvious and specific technical manifestation may be the collapse and re-collision of the consensus on the future monetary system. For example, in 2008, the United States suffered a financial crisis, and the global credit market suffered a heavy blow. In the same year, Bitcoin was born. Today, the cryptocurrency industry has a market value of trillions of dollars, and the trigger point for pushing up this technology and the utopian monetary system was the periodic violent fluctuations in the credit of the US dollar that year. As the US dollar stabilized later, the entire cryptocurrency market did not disappear, and at the same time, the most primitive gold also started a historic spiral rise until now.

The multipolarization of currency is a very unstable technical market era. People are beginning to look for larger transactions, storage and value media with future currency attributes. At this time, the euro, pound, yen, renminbi, gold, Bitcoin, and the US dollar, etc., will become a coexistence era of competing for consensus and carrying explanatory power.

Behind the euro is a new global alliance development model, behind the pound is the brand dividend of modern state operation with strong continuity, the yen is a technological development model of sophisticated manufacturing and services, behind the renminbi is the world's largest single stable market and the world's largest physical trade creation system, etc., behind gold is the return of tools to counter future risks; Bitcoin is a gradually expanding monetary utopian technology imagination that cannot be ignored; behind the US dollar is the immediate expression of the United States using the third function of the US dollar to solve fiscal and debt problems.

Based on the above analysis and discussion system, my personal judgment is (chatting) that the US dollar has entered the garbage time of history. This does not mean that the US dollar will not have a periodic rebound in purchasing power or exchange rate, but that the global currency consensus system of the US dollar and the function of the US dollar to solve the most basic infrastructure problems in the United States have gradually weakened, thus beginning to backfire on the value concept of global trade and the credibility of the currency. People continue to conduct global trade based on the US dollar, which is only temporarily unable to find a substitute, rather than the US dollar creating an irreversible and optimal solution for global trade. At this time, the multipolarization from the political, economic, trade, security and other levels will gradually move towards the multipolarization at the monetary level. This is an irreversible opening of the garbage time of history for the most fundamental value of the consensus on the monopoly of the international attributes of the US dollar.