Lost, Forgotten or Dead: Is Bitcoin More "Scarce" Than Thought?

In a May 2025 report, Ledger cited analysts’ estimates that the number of lost coins was between 2.3 million and 3.7 million, accounting for about 11%-18% of the total.

In a June 2025 report, Cairn Island digital analyst Timothy Peterson estimated that more than 6 million BTC were irrecoverable. A 2023 study by blockchain analytics platform Glassnode and ARK Invest estimated that approximately 7.8 million BTC are hoarded or lost, though this figure may be higher due to the inclusion of long-term "hoarding" addresses. This represents approximately 39% of the total supply (as of September 8, 2025, approximately 19.9 million Bitcoins have been mined). Despite differences in statistical caliber, these figures collectively point to a large and growing pool of impermanently lost Bitcoin. The Hidden "Supply Shock": Underestimated Scarcity This "hidden supply shock" caused by lost Bitcoin is far larger than the much-discussed institutional adoption. As of August 2025, data shows that all spot Bitcoin ETFs hold a combined total of approximately 1.036 million Bitcoins. According to statistics from the Bitcoin Treasuries website, the top 100 publicly traded companies globally hold approximately 988,000 Bitcoins, with some well-known companies also holding some. Adding together the Bitcoin held by ETFs and companies, the total is approximately 2.2 million. This means that even using the most conservative estimate of 2.3 million lost Bitcoins, the number of Bitcoins permanently removed from circulation already exceeds the combined holdings of Wall Street and global corporate giants. While the market's focus remains on inflows into BlackRock's IBIT fund or the increased Bitcoin holdings by MicroStrategy, a more significant and far-reaching supply crunch is quietly underway. Bitcoin's true market capitalization may be overestimated by approximately $500 billion. Taking the currently mined 19.9 million Bitcoins as a base, subtracting a median estimate of 5 million lost Bitcoins, subtracting the 2.2 million held by institutions, and assuming that individual long-term investors have "hoarded" approximately 3.8 million Bitcoins, the actual free float of Bitcoin available for trading in the market may be only 8.9 million, or approximately 45% of the total mined supply. By comparison, the free float ratio of S&P 500 stocks typically ranges between 70% and 90%. Therefore, the current media report of Bitcoin's total market capitalization exceeding $2.1 trillion is actually an illusion. If we exclude the 5 million "ghost bitcoins," the true market capitalization would be approximately $1.6 trillion, a loss of approximately $500 billion. In short, Bitcoin's scarcity far exceeds its stated limit of 21 million coins. This "silent deflation" of loss, oblivion, and death is continuously reducing the actual supply of Bitcoin, and its impact and scale far exceed the current focus of mainstream financial media. The market is gradually realizing that this is "scarcer than imagined."