Original: Liu Jiaolian
Overnight, BTC failed to hold the $60,000 line and suddenly retreated to above 58k. "The market sentiment is indeed in a state of extreme panic now."
According to Jiaolian's observation, the current situation is that bulls are silent, bears are in tears, those who hold the copycat have cleared their positions, and those who hold BTC are also defending with half positions. It seems that there are not many men who hold full positions and even others are afraid of me adding positions.
Gold broke through the historic $2,500, which seems to strongly declare the U-bottom stage of 2012-2020, and the complete failure of gold bears to suppress gold. Who is the biggest gold bear? Of course, it is America.
Obviously, in the macro cycle of 2021-2025, BTC seems to have the trend of repeating the strong signal on the right side of the gold U-shaped bottom from 2012 to 2024 and then breaking upward.
If so, BTC has completed the 12-year blood and tears road of gold in just 6 years.
Looking at the macro interest rate cycle that looks like 2006-2007, Jiaolian couldn't help but fall into contemplation...
Recalling that the high interest rate in 2007 lasted only one year, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out and triggered the global financial tsunami. The Federal Reserve was in a panic, and the interest rate fell to zero.
Suddenly, a children's song sang in my ears: Little mouse, climbed up the lampstand, stole oil to eat, couldn't get down, jiliguluo rolled down!
Little mouse, climbed up the lampstand, stole oil to eat, couldn't get down, jiliguluo rolled down...
Jiaolian clapped his hands and sang it twice in his mind to the rhythm, and he couldn't help but feel very happy.
It turns out that the top wisdom of mankind is written in nursery rhymes and fairy tales.
The long-term growth rate of human productivity is 2%, that is, the average speed of value creation is only 2% per year. Therefore, in the ultimate sense, any return rate exceeding 2%, no matter how high-sounding the reason is, is the transfer of stock value and wealth, in other words, it is a group of people harvesting another group of people.
The current high risk-free interest rate of 5.5% of the US dollar is far more than 2%, which is definitely a harvest of the whole world. All arguments that deny harvesting are pale. Sophists are either beneficiaries of harvesting or pure fools, because this is mathematics, irrefutable mathematics.
Some people may simply dislike the naked word "harvest". In fact, it can also be replaced with more elegant and advanced words, such as obtaining investment alpha, and so on.
But the US dollar system is actually not prepared to leave even the last 2% for the leeks. This is why the Federal Reserve sets the long-term inflation control target at 2% - using 2% inflation to hedge the long-term productivity growth rate, that is, to absorb the incremental value.
From 2007 to 2012, gold first began to rise again and again despite the Fed's interest rate hikes, and then as the Fed raised the white flag in 2008, interest rates plummeted and accelerated its surge.
Seeing that the situation was not good, the United States introduced a bill in July 2011 to close the gold OTC market. The ten-year bull market in gold peaked, and it fell back in response, falling into the abyss of the U-shaped valley.
It was precisely when the Fed resumed raising interest rates in 2016 that the left side of the U-shaped valley of gold fell to the bottom and began to rise.
With the interruption of the major events of the epidemic in 2020, the Fed's interest rate hike collapsed halfway, and gold took the opportunity to regain lost ground and walked out of the U-shaped valley.
When the Fed continued to raise interest rates in 2022, gold had climbed out of the U-shaped valley and began to consolidate at the top.
Now it is 2024, after more than a year of high interest rates, gold has ended its three-year consolidation and has broken through strongly upward, avenging its previous shame, carrying the banner of the US dollar recession and galloping!
Perhaps it was the amazing performance of gold as a hedge against the Fed's failure in the last interest rate hike cycle (harvest cycle) that inspired Satoshi Nakamoto. On the last day of October 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto published the white paper of his new invention, BTC. In January 2009, BTC was officially launched.
The decentralized and digital characteristics of BTC make it possible to overcome the shortcomings of gold being restricted and cracked down by the United States through legislation.
If you can't beat it, then make friends. It's called "no fight, no acquaintance" in the arena. The underlying logic of human society is so pure. You must learn from elementary school that if you are bullied, you must fight back. If you kneel down, you will always be bullied and will be looked down upon by everyone.
In 2024, the United States and China successively approved the listing of BTC ETF.
Now, the Federal Reserve is once again on the verge of failure.
Recession or depression is just a thought away from the Federal Reserve.
The macro-monetary cycle is about to reverse, and the new re-expansion cycle can no longer be suppressed and is about to come.
This time, can BTC replicate the amazing performance of gold in the past and ride the wind and waves and soar straight up?
The US dollar, which has not harvested enough stock wealth, will be exposed after re-expansion, and will depreciate rapidly relative to BTC and gold.