Market confusion after tariff suspension: Is the market really back?

Author: The DeFi Investor Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance

It's been a real roller coaster ride. After initially announcing the highest tariffs in more than 100 years, Trump decided to suspend tariffs on most countries (excluding China) for 90 days. As a result of the suspension of tariffs, financial markets subsequently saw a sharp rise.

Now, the key question is:

Will this upward trend continue, or has the bottom not yet come?

Here are my thoughts:

First, I think that the pausing tariffs is a good decision overall.

It has undoubtedly improved the short-term outlook for the market, but at the same time, it does not provide the kind of clarity that the market needs.

That’s probably why the S&P 500 fell 4% today despite the tariff suspension.

But even with the tariffs suspended on most countries, Trump decided to increase US tariffs on China to 145%, and as I mentioned in my newsletter a few weeks ago, macro uncertainty was one of the main reasons I believe led to the initial decline.

And at this point, there are still many questions to be answered:

• Will most tariffs be lifted after the 90-day suspension period ends?

• Will Trump eventually reach a deal with China, or will the economic war between China and the US continue?

• Is the market pricing in the possibility of a US-China deal?

• Will Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cut rates soon? (According to Polymarket, there is about a 25% chance of that happening in May)

With that in mind, I expect the market to remain mostly sideways or even down in the coming weeks—at least until Trump hopefully strikes some trade deal.

Whether I’m right remains to be seen.

But for now, I’m not interested in making any major investments. As the saying goes, “Sometimes, the best action is to take no action.”

It’s hard to get an edge in the market at this point.

There’s nothing wrong with not taking big risks in uncertain times.

The best way to increase your odds of success in the long run is to only make high-certainty bets and wait for the right moment to present itself.

So, at the moment I prefer to focus on the following:

• Airdrops/yield farming (mostly using stablecoins)

• Trying to increase my income instead of staring at charts

• Pairs trading from time to time (opening long and short positions on different assets at the same time to profit from any market conditions)

Finally, I would like to say:

There is also a positive side in this market uncertainty (only for Bitcoin). Due to market uncertainty, people’s trust in world leaders, traditional financial systems, and fiat currencies is gradually eroding.

Ignace summed it up perfectly:

"The worst-case scenario for BTC is rational leaders, friendly global cooperation, fiscally prudent policies, and low debt and the dollar as a hard currency."

Unfortunately, BTC is currently highly correlated with the stock market. But in a world full of unpredictability, the bull case for Bitcoin will only get stronger in the long run.