Author: Spirit, Golden Finance
Introduction
On March 7, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued Interpretation Letter 1183, marking a major turning point in the regulatory framework of the US banking industry in the field of crypto. This new policy removes the requirement for banks to obtain prior regulatory approval to conduct crypto business, and allows national banks and federal savings associations to directly participate in the custody of crypto assets, issue US dollar stablecoins, and operate blockchain nodes. The implementation of this policy not only paves the way for the integration of traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, but also caused sharp fluctuations in market sentiment and subtle ups and downs in Bitcoin prices in the past 24 hours. This article will focus on the OCC policy, deeply analyze its impact on the crypto industry, and explore the multiple meanings of this event in combination with the current market sentiment and changes in Bitcoin trading data.
1.The core and breakthrough of the OCC policy
Policy details
The core of the OCC new policy is "removing barriers". Specifically:
Crypto asset custody: Banks can directly store crypto asset private keys for customers, providing higher security than existing wallets.
Stable currency issuance: Banks are allowed to hold stable currency reserves and issue digital currencies pegged to the US dollar to compete with USDT, USDC, etc.
Blockchain nodes: Banks can become validators of distributed ledgers, directly participate in network consensus, and enhance the security and credibility of blockchain.
At the same time, the OCC revoked the "Caution Statement" jointly issued with the FDIC and the Fed in 2023, which had suppressed banks from entering the field by emphasizing the liquidity and market risks of crypto assets. This policy adjustment explicitly requires banks to conduct crypto business under the traditional risk management framework and no longer set up additional regulatory barriers.
Historical Background
Since the OCC first allowed banks to provide crypto custody services in 2020, the attitude of US regulators towards crypto has undergone a transition from cautious exploration to gradual opening. The 2023 Caution Statement was once regarded as a continuation of "Operation Chokepoint 2.0", which restricted the cooperation between banks and crypto companies. Now, under the promotion of the Trump administration (the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Executive Order was signed on March 7), the OCC's new policy is interpreted as the fulfillment of the promise to "end crypto banking restrictions", marking the shift of supervision from "containment" to "integration".
Breakthrough significance
Institutional entry is accelerated: As the pillar of traditional finance, the participation of banks will inject stable funds and technical support into the crypto market, which may promote the long-term value of assets such as Bitcoin.
Reshaping of the competitive landscape: Stablecoins issued by banks may challenge existing giants (such as Tether) and reconstruct the DeFi and payment ecosystem.
Challenges of decentralization: The participation of bank nodes may increase the risk of network centralization and trigger controversy in the community over the "decentralized spirit".
II. Immediate reaction of market sentiment
Observation of sentiment on X platform
In the past 24 hours, discussions on social media X reflected the market's complex sentiment towards the OCC policy:
Optimists: Users such as @0xJamesTang called it "the invisible nuclear bomb in the bear market", believing that bank nodes and stablecoins will pave the way for institutional funds to enter the market, which will be beneficial to the crypto ecosystem in the long run.
Cautious: Some users (such as @jianguotz) pointed out that although the policy brings regulatory clarity, it may also aggravate the contradiction between decentralization and environmental issues, and the short-term effect remains to be seen.
Pessimists: The low liquidity in the market over the weekend and the policy digestion period, user @otakustw mentioned that "Bitcoin continues to fall, and altcoins may have opportunities", reflecting uncertainty about the short-term trend.
Emotional drivers
Positive expectations: The OCC policy is seen as "the endorsement of traditional finance", boosting investors' confidence in institutional participation.
Weekend effect: March 9 was Sunday, the market trading volume was low, and the emotional fluctuations were not fully converted into price momentum.
Uncertainty: The specific implementation plan of the bank has not yet been clarified, and investors are waiting for more details.
3. Bitcoin price fluctuations and market dynamics
After the OCC policy was released (March 7), the price of Bitcoin rose briefly to $92,000, and then fell back to below $90,000 due to low trading volume over the weekend, with a 24-hour drop of about 2%-3%.
Changes in trading volume: The average daily trading volume shrank on weekends, lower than the weekday level, reflecting the market's wait-and-see sentiment.
Performance of altcoins: Ethereum may adjust with Bitcoin, while some Layer-2 tokens (such as ARB and OP) rebounded slightly (5%-10%) due to the positive news of bank nodes.
Reasons for volatility
Short-term pressure: Insufficient liquidity over the weekend limits the immediate realization of policy benefits, and retail investors' selling exacerbates adjustments.
Medium-term potential: If banks run nodes or issue stablecoins in the coming weeks, they may push up Bitcoin computing power and network activity, supporting price recovery.
External factors: The OCC policy overlaps with Trump's executive order on March 7, and the market expects institutional funds to gradually enter the market in Q2.
Fourth, the long-term impact of the OCC policy
Industry level
Reshaping the role of banks: Traditional banks may become "new players" in the crypto market, providing custody, payment and node services, competing with CEXs such as Coinbase and Binance.
Stablecoin market: US dollar stablecoins issued by banks may weaken the dominance of Tether (USDT) and promote compliance competition.
Regulatory coordination: The new OCC policy may prompt the SEC, CFTC and other institutions to accelerate the formulation of crypto rules and form a unified framework.
Market Level
Fund Structure: The proportion of institutional funds may increase from the current 30% to 40%-50%, reducing market volatility.
User Growth: Traditional users reached by banks (far more than crypto-native users) will accelerate industry popularization, and millions of new users may be added.
Risk Points: Bank centralization may trigger community backlash, and it is necessary to balance decentralization and compliance needs.
Global Perspective
The loosening of US policies may stimulate other countries (such as the EU and Japan) to adjust their crypto regulatory stance and accelerate the competition between global central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins. China's digital renminbi (DC/EP) may further exert its strength in cross-border payments to offset the impact of the United States.
V. Market sentiment and future prospects of Bitcoin
Short term (1-2 weeks)
Sentiment: The market may gradually turn to optimism after digesting the policy details, and pay attention to the news of the first batch of pilot projects of banks.
Price: Bitcoin may fluctuate between $90,000 and $95,000. If it breaks through $95,000, it may challenge the $100,000 mark.
Medium term (3-6 months)
Sentiment: Institutional entry and stablecoin issuance will boost confidence, but community concerns about centralization may cause controversy.
Price: If bank nodes are operated on a large scale, the increase in Bitcoin computing power may push the price to $110,000-120,000.
Long term (1-2 years)
Sentiment: The integration of encryption and traditional finance deepens, market sentiment tends to stabilize, and attention is paid to global regulatory coordination.
Price: Bitcoin's position as a strategic reserve asset is consolidated, or it may stabilize above $150,000.
Conclusion
The implementation of the OCC policy is an important turning point for the crypto industry in 2025. It not only breaks the barriers between banks and the crypto ecosystem, but also injects new momentum into Bitcoin's move from marginal assets to mainstream finance. Market sentiment and price fluctuations in the past 24 hours show that investors are still on the sidelines in the short term, but the long-term potential cannot be ignored. In the future, with the specific implementation of banks and the response of global regulators, the crypto market may usher in a new round of growth cycle. The evolution of Bitcoin is moving from "digital gold" to "strategic cornerstone", and in this process, the interweaving of market sentiment and price fluctuations will continue to provide us with an observation window.
Miyuki
Joy
Brian
Alex
Weiliang